[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":538},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-16545152":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":29,"sentiment":30,"stance_mix":31,"scored_comments":36,"aspects":37,"strip":48,"post_text":50,"what":51,"said":91,"maker_in_thread":213,"shape":225,"grid":228,"attempts":499,"same_week":500,"maker_shows":34,"maker_hidden":530,"reader_version":531,"card":532},"16545152","Tinder Revenue Estimate","Right, thanks","maker","Show HN: Tinder Revenue Estimate","https:\u002F\u002Fmanicoti.com\u002Fbmodels\u002F1","manicoti.com","ebellity",1520525008,2018,137,105,304,2155,15,"notable","finance_crypto","business model estimation","web_app",[24,25,26,27,28],"revenue estimate","business model","financial model","tinder revenue","startup valuation","curious",0.062,{"positive":32,"neutral":33,"mixed":34,"critical":35},9,23,2,7,41,{"design":38,"idea":40,"execution":42,"docs":44,"pricing":46,"performance":47},{"positive":39,"critical":34},0,{"positive":41,"critical":39},6,{"positive":39,"critical":43},3,{"positive":39,"critical":45},1,{"positive":45,"critical":45},{"positive":39,"critical":39},[43,43,43,39,39,39,39,43,49,39,39,39,39,39,43,43,45,45,45,49,49,49,45,43,49,49,49,45,43,45,43,45,43,43,43,39,49,43,43,39],5,null,{"problem":52,"audience":64,"pricing":50,"motivation":73,"time_to_build":50,"stack":82,"openness":89,"stage":90,"team_size":89},{"value":53,"source":54,"evidence":55},"Hard to see how companies make money when revenue figures are not public","inferred",[56,60],{"id":57,"by":58,"text":59},"16545441","primitivesuave","Really cool idea. It would be awesome if you could crowdsource the data for any companies through employees - some big companies don't have much transparency on revenue numbers,…",{"id":61,"by":62,"text":63},"16545782","philipodonnell","This is an interesting way of decomposing a business model in general, not just documenting existing companies. I could see something like this chipping away at the Excel models…",{"value":65,"source":66,"evidence":67},"Employees, investors and people learning how businesses work","commenter",[68,69,70],{"id":57,"by":58,"text":59},{"id":61,"by":62,"text":63},{"id":71,"by":11,"text":72},"16545843","Yep, you just read into my mind ! Also think it could be great for education, in the information age it's still not easy to understand how businesses work exactly for most people.",{"value":74,"source":54,"evidence":75},"Interest in estimating business models and competitor revenue",[76,79],{"id":77,"by":11,"text":78},"16546021","thanks for the feedback. It's funny now that you mention AppAnnie I just remembered an old project I did in 2010 called AppsMetrix trying to estimate the number of app downloads…",{"id":80,"by":11,"text":81},"16545530","Yes I've done that manually. In my head I would love for it to be something even more collaborative 'Wikipedia-style' and people would help keep the numbers up to date. Of course…",[83],{"value":84,"source":7,"evidence":85},"Heroku hosting",[86],{"id":87,"by":11,"text":88},"16545510","thanks will do, and just temporarily upgraded to a better dyno on Heroku... I was on their small Hobby things, mostly good for side projects and it crashed!","unknown","launched",{"praise":92,"objections":105,"requests":144,"questions":178,"alternatives":193},[93],{"value":94,"source":66,"evidence":95},"Interesting idea for decomposing business models",[96,97,101],{"id":61,"by":62,"text":63},{"id":98,"by":99,"text":100},"16545741","telekid","This interface generalizes nicely to estimating any Fermi problem, not just business models. I love it!",{"id":102,"by":103,"text":104},"16545394","nerdponx","This is really interesting. Thank you!",[106,120,134],{"value":107,"source":66,"evidence":108},"Revenue estimate seems too low, especially given subscriber pricing",[109,113,117],{"id":110,"by":111,"text":112},"16545442","cal5k","I think this number is a massive underestimate of their annual top-line. Based on the cost of a subscription I'd bet it's in the $1B+ range.",{"id":114,"by":115,"text":116},"16545505","BlackjackCF","Agreed. Having worked at a dating app that had a significantly smaller user base, the revenue numbers are definitely low balled.",{"id":118,"by":111,"text":119},"16546379","The subscription price varies substantially according to age and region. I also suspect that they make a lot of money from \"whales\", i.e. people with the most expensive…",{"value":121,"source":66,"evidence":122},"Design and readability need improvement",[123,127,131],{"id":124,"by":125,"text":126},"16545563","PaulHoule","I love the idea here, but I don't find the report very easy to read.",{"id":128,"by":129,"text":130},"16545874","redgetan","I like the site's intended purpose, but I agree with others that design needs improvement. Also, perhaps you can source some data from public data (i.e annual report, appannie).",{"id":132,"by":125,"text":133},"16545785","in my mind that looks something like a spreadsheet but more structured, say like the old https:\u002F\u002Fen.wikipedia.org\u002Fwiki\u002FTK_Solver There is a large precedent of people writing…",{"value":135,"source":66,"evidence":136},"Sources and confidence of numbers not clearly shown",[137,141],{"id":138,"by":139,"text":140},"16546425","Glench","Cool! I think evidence-backed modeling is a really interesting idea. As an unsolicited suggestion, I wonder if there's a way to emphasize numbers that are backed by evidence…",{"id":142,"by":139,"text":143},"16546496","Yeah, but none of that information is surfaced in the high-level report. If I'm reading this I'd like to have an idea of each number's validity.",[145,150,160,171],{"value":146,"source":66,"evidence":147},"Crowdsourced or collaborative data updates",[148,149],{"id":57,"by":58,"text":59},{"id":80,"by":11,"text":81},{"value":151,"source":66,"evidence":152},"Show ranges and confidence for estimates",[153,157],{"id":154,"by":155,"text":156},"16547457","lifeformed","Suggestion: be able to specify ranges for variable estimates, and give ranges for the answers to calculations.",{"id":158,"by":11,"text":159},"16546618","Definitely something I'm thinking about. Maybe even some kind of \"confidence interval\" of confidence ratio could be added next to an estimate.",{"value":161,"source":66,"evidence":162},"Shorter number formats like $36.2M",[163,167],{"id":164,"by":165,"text":166},"16545553","mi100hael","Feedback: consider ditching the .00 on the numbers and spelling out \"million\"\u002F\"billion.\" It's a lot easier to quickly read \"$36.2 million\" than \"$36,200,000.00\"",{"id":168,"by":169,"text":170},"16546406","atticusberg","Or better yet, $36.2M",{"value":172,"source":66,"evidence":173},"Email updates and timeline for financials",[174],{"id":175,"by":176,"text":177},"16546431","vm","I really like what you're doing here. Two things that I would like as a user: -ability to get updates (pref email) when new companies are added or companies I follow are updated…",[179,186],{"value":180,"source":66,"evidence":181},"How is data kept up to date",[182],{"id":183,"by":184,"text":185},"16545443","fwdpropaganda","Cool stuff. I've noticed that some times you source numbers from news articles, which you reference. How do you plan to keep the numbers updated? EDIT: In fact, how have you done…",{"value":187,"source":66,"evidence":188},"Where the models come from",[189],{"id":190,"by":191,"text":192},"16548590","hemantv","Where are you getting these models?",[194,198,206],{"value":195,"source":66,"evidence":196},"Excel financial models",[197],{"id":61,"by":62,"text":63},{"value":199,"source":66,"evidence":200},"AppAnnie",[201,202],{"id":128,"by":129,"text":130},{"id":203,"by":204,"text":205},"16548928","oli5679","I did an internship for a mobile games studio. They had really detailed estimates of competitor revenues because they were able to combine: 1) their own daily revenue from titles…",{"value":207,"source":66,"evidence":208},"Nomad List",[209],{"id":210,"by":211,"text":212},"16547925","gupir","You should allow requests to add or alter data, mostly like nomadlist.com do (example [1]). The owner could discuss and accept or reject the request. I think it would enrich the…",{"comments":214,"answered":215,"key":216},31,8,[217,219,222],{"id":218,"text":6},"16545700",{"id":220,"text":221},"16545602","agreed, thanks for the feedback !",{"id":223,"text":224},"16545780","I think what he was trying to say is \"Dollar dollar bill, y'all\"",{"commenters":226,"max_depth":215,"maker_replies":214,"first_comment_mins":33,"lifespan_hours":227},61,53,[229,231,233,237,240,243,246,247,251,254,258,260,263,266,269,272,275,277,280,283,286,288,291,295,296,299,302,305,308,311,314,317,320,321,323,325,327,329,332,337,340,342,345,347,348,350,352,355,357,359,363,365,369,373,375,378,380,381,382,384,386,387,389,390,392,394,396,398,401,403,405,410,412,415,417,420,423,424,426,430,432,436,438,440,444,447,449,451,455,457,462,464,466,469,471,474,476,478,480,482,484,488,492,494,497],[164,39,43,230,165,39],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign",[218,39,39,232,11,45],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[234,39,39,235,236,39],"16545722","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign","thisisit",[238,39,43,230,239,39],"16546333","ssdd",[241,39,43,230,242,39],"16546851","pc86",[244,39,43,230,245,39],"16547796","jamez1",[168,39,43,230,169,39],[248,39,39,249,250,39],"16546741","other\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","subdane",[252,39,39,249,253,39],"16546764","lotsofpulp",[255,39,39,256,257,39],"16546946","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","rsp1984",[259,39,39,256,165,39],"16547147",[261,39,39,256,262,39],"16546986","esalazar",[264,39,39,249,265,39],"16547018","troels",[267,39,39,249,268,39],"16547306","mandelbrotwurst",[270,39,39,249,271,39],"16547336","waits",[273,39,39,249,274,39],"16547626","spiznnx",[276,39,39,249,265,39],"16548340",[278,39,39,249,279,39],"16547101","darwhy",[281,39,43,230,282,39],"16546528","drenvuk",[284,39,43,230,285,39],"16547069","ThrustVectoring",[287,39,43,230,211,39],"16547847",[289,39,43,230,290,39],"16548230","amelius",[292,45,49,293,294,39],"16545520","maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fnone","slig",[220,45,39,232,11,45],[297,34,39,249,298,39],"16545571","rb808",[300,34,39,249,301,39],"16545634","kaycebasques",[303,34,39,249,304,39],"16545716","guskel",[306,34,39,249,307,39],"16546763","emodendroket",[309,34,39,249,310,39],"16548950","thewizardofaus",[312,34,39,249,313,39],"16550215","carlivar",[315,34,39,249,316,39],"16546964","chillacy",[318,34,39,249,319,39],"16545742","joering2",[223,34,39,249,11,45],[322,34,39,249,298,39],"16545925",[324,34,39,249,155,39],"16547426",[326,34,39,249,319,39],"16548441",[57,43,43,328,58,39],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[330,43,39,331,11,45],"16545727","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[333,334,43,335,336,39],"16545646",4,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution","sjbase",[338,334,39,339,11,45],"16545823","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[138,49,43,341,139,39],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs",[343,49,43,341,344,39],"16546463","RandallBrown",[142,49,45,346,139,39],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fdocs",[158,49,39,331,11,45],[110,41,45,349,111,39],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fexecution",[114,41,39,351,115,39],"commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[353,41,39,354,11,45],"16545547","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fpricing",[118,41,45,356,111,39],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fpricing",[358,41,39,354,11,45],"16546683",[360,41,43,361,362,39],"16546783","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fpricing","haskellandchill",[364,41,39,354,11,45],"16547188",[366,41,49,367,368,39],"16546856","project\u002Fpositive\u002Fpricing","matte_black",[370,41,49,371,372,39],"16546997","project\u002Fpositive\u002Fnone","aphextron",[374,41,39,232,11,45],"16547182",[376,41,39,256,377,39],"16546058","c1utch1",[61,35,49,379,62,39],"project\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[71,35,39,331,11,45],[203,215,43,328,204,39],[383,215,39,354,11,45],"16550280",[128,32,45,385,129,39],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fdesign",[77,32,39,331,11,45],[183,388,43,328,184,39],10,[80,388,39,328,11,45],[210,391,49,379,211,39],11,[393,391,39,328,11,45],"16548108",[395,391,49,379,211,39],"16550946",[98,397,49,379,99,39],12,[399,397,39,400,11,45],"16545800","maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[175,402,49,379,176,39],13,[404,402,39,232,11,45],"16546657",[406,407,43,408,409,39],"16547398",14,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","webninja",[411,407,39,408,11,45],"16547600",[413,18,45,349,414,39],"16548179","mcintyre1994",[416,18,39,339,11,45],"16550199",[124,418,43,419,125,39],16,"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fdesign",[421,418,39,422,11,45],"16545620","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign",[132,418,45,385,125,39],[425,418,39,422,11,45],"16545954",[427,428,43,328,429,39],"16545840",17,"bourgoin",[431,428,39,331,11,45],"16545856",[433,434,43,408,435,39],"16546751",18,"bluetwo",[437,434,39,408,11,45],"16547195",[439,434,39,256,435,39],"16560251",[441,442,45,349,443,39],"16546747",19,"pg_bot",[445,442,39,446,11,45],"16547210","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs",[154,448,43,328,155,39],20,[450,448,39,331,11,45],"16547605",[452,453,43,328,454,39],"16546410",21,"stillsut",[456,453,39,331,11,45],"16546724",[458,459,43,460,461,39],"16545444",22,"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fperformance","bflesch",[87,459,39,463,11,45],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fperformance",[465,33,39,249,368,39],"16546767",[467,33,39,256,468,39],"16546791","swyx",[470,33,39,249,368,39],"16546812",[472,33,39,256,473,39],"16546834","celestialcheese",[475,33,39,249,368,39],"16546942",[102,477,49,379,103,39],24,[479,477,39,293,11,45],"16545426",[190,481,43,328,191,39],25,[483,481,39,331,11,45],"16550201",[485,486,43,328,487,39],"16548548",26,"senatorobama",[489,490,39,249,491,39],"16545366",27,"aw3c2",[493,490,39,232,11,45],"16545414",[495,490,39,249,496,39],"16545449","sctb",[498,490,39,232,11,45],"16545604",[],[501,506,511,516,521,526],{"id":502,"name":503,"points":504,"category":505},"16571827","RoughJS",1087,"languages",{"id":507,"name":508,"points":509,"category":510},"16552777","Tones.fm",309,"creative",{"id":512,"name":513,"points":514,"category":515},"16551696","Devstream.tv",257,"consumer_social",{"id":517,"name":518,"points":519,"category":520},"16574893","Gitkube",224,"infrastructure",{"id":522,"name":523,"points":524,"category":525},"16577126","LonelyPage",216,"web_saas",{"id":527,"name":528,"points":529,"category":510},"16559715","Tiny Player",156,false,"v2",{"id":533,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":530,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":29,"s":534,"top":18,"kw":535,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":39,"strip":536,"url":9,"mix":537,"praise":94,"objection":107,"sub":21},16545152,0.06,[24,25,26,27,28],"3330000350000033111555135551313133305330",[32,33,34,35],1794036564097]