[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":199},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-16591878":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":29,"sentiment":30,"stance_mix":31,"scored_comments":35,"aspects":36,"strip":42,"post_text":43,"what":44,"said":65,"maker_in_thread":132,"shape":134,"grid":139,"attempts":160,"same_week":161,"maker_shows":41,"maker_hidden":191,"reader_version":192,"card":193},"16591878","Talent vs. Luck","A recreation of the paper's model","title","Show HN: Talent vs. Luck – A recreation of the paper's model","http:\u002F\u002Fjoshuaballoch.github.io\u002Frecreating-talent-vs-luck\u002F","joshuaballoch.github.io","jbtca",1521113606,2018,86,10,508,2155,24,"notable","learning_science","simulation of research paper","web_app",[24,25,26,27,28],"agent-based simulation","talent vs luck","wealth distribution","random walk","power law","roasted",-0.368,{"positive":32,"neutral":33,"mixed":32,"critical":34},0,3,4,7,{"idea":37,"design":38,"docs":39,"execution":40},{"positive":32,"critical":33},{"positive":32,"critical":32},{"positive":32,"critical":32},{"positive":32,"critical":41},1,[33,41,32,32,33,41,33,41,41,32],null,{"problem":45,"audience":43,"pricing":43,"motivation":57,"time_to_build":43,"stack":63,"openness":64,"stage":64,"team_size":64},{"value":46,"source":47,"evidence":48},"Shows how luck can outweigh talent in success, using a simulation of the paper's model","commenter",[49,53],{"id":50,"by":51,"text":52},"16594836","amelius","> I think you can only \"prove\" things about the system you construct. Meaning, in reality it has (or could have) little to no basis. I think the author is aware of that and the…",{"id":54,"by":55,"text":56},"16594546","nopinsight","A key purpose of the original paper is to inform policy to improve public funding of research [1]. Thus, to a first-order approximation, it should reflect realities. However, ...…",{"value":58,"source":59,"evidence":60},"Recreate the paper's model and test its claims","inferred",[61],{"id":62},"post",[],"unknown",{"praise":66,"objections":71,"requests":97,"questions":112,"alternatives":120},[67],{"value":68,"source":47,"evidence":69},"Useful way to show talent is not guaranteed to lead to success",[70],{"id":50,"by":51,"text":52},[72,79,83,91],{"value":73,"source":47,"evidence":74},"Model results only hold for the system constructed, not reality",[75],{"id":76,"by":77,"text":78},"16593055","lettergram","Having built models like this by programming before [1]. I think you can only \"prove\" things about the system you construct. Meaning, in reality it has (or could have) little to…",{"value":80,"source":47,"evidence":81},"Lucky and unlucky event counts per agent seem unrealistically high",[82],{"id":54,"by":55,"text":56},{"value":84,"source":47,"evidence":85},"Talent distribution described as normal, not uniform, and 0.62 is above average",[86,90],{"id":87,"by":88,"text":89},"16597226","FabHK","Red flag: > People start with the same allotment of capital, and are given a number between 0 and 1 to represent their “talent”. Talent is normally distributed. Maybe the author…",{"id":76,"by":77,"text":78},{"value":92,"source":47,"evidence":93},"Log-normal fit claim for success data is questionable",[94],{"id":95,"by":88,"text":96},"16597523","> each around 5-7 events per agent on average [...] In the real world, how many regular people\u002Fscientists have that many career-defining events? A significant event every half…",[98,105],{"value":99,"source":47,"evidence":100},"Explain why a 2D simulation is needed at all",[101],{"id":102,"by":103,"text":104},"16592857","IshKebab","Why does this need to be a 2D simulation? I don't see how geometry comes into it at all. Also worth reading http:\u002F\u002Fbactra.org\u002Fweblog\u002F491.html",{"value":106,"source":47,"evidence":107},"Correct the attribution wording in the post's first line",[108],{"id":109,"by":110,"text":111},"16594887","thisisit","OP, you should correct the first line > I recently came across the paper titled Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure, by A. Pluchino. A. E. Biondo, A.…",[113],{"value":114,"source":47,"evidence":115},"Whether the power law comes from temporal correlations in the 2D simulation",[116],{"id":117,"by":118,"text":119},"16595333","smaddox","Why does it need to be a simulation at all? The model is essentially a geometric random walk with number of trials N and probability of success in each trial P, with P varying.…",[121,128],{"value":122,"source":47,"evidence":123},"Peter Norvig's economics simulation notebook",[124],{"id":125,"by":126,"text":127},"16593332","nabla9","When selecting a model to demonstrate some dynamic behaviour: 1. First select the simplest model that captures some generic and essential. 2. Vary the parameters and introduce…",{"value":129,"source":47,"evidence":130},"Uri Wilensky's simpler wealth model",[131],{"id":125,"by":126,"text":127},{"comments":32,"answered":32,"key":133},[],{"commenters":135,"max_depth":136,"maker_replies":32,"first_comment_mins":137,"lifespan_hours":138},9,2,144,12,[140,142,144,146,149,151,152,154,156,158],[125,32,33,141,126,32],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[76,41,41,143,77,32],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea",[50,41,32,145,51,32],"commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[147,41,32,145,148,32],"16597222","vannevar",[102,136,33,150,103,32],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign",[117,136,41,143,118,32],[109,33,33,153,110,32],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs",[87,34,41,155,88,32],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fexecution",[54,157,41,143,55,32],5,[95,157,32,159,88,32],"commenter\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea",[],[162,167,172,177,182,187],{"id":163,"name":164,"points":165,"category":166},"16619580","URL Canary",273,"security_privacy",{"id":168,"name":169,"points":170,"category":171},"16591962","Where is Sci-Hub",247,"other",{"id":173,"name":174,"points":175,"category":176},"16626374","Word2Bits",221,"languages",{"id":178,"name":179,"points":180,"category":181},"16606408","Makesite",146,"dev_tools",{"id":183,"name":184,"points":185,"category":186},"16636935","Sheet2Site",145,"web_saas",{"id":188,"name":189,"points":190,"category":181},"16594515","Fossa-cli",104,false,"v2",{"id":194,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":191,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":29,"s":195,"top":18,"kw":196,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":32,"strip":197,"url":9,"mix":198,"praise":68,"objection":73,"sub":21},16591878,-0.37,[24,25,26,27,28],"3100313110",[32,33,32,34],1794036564295]