[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":332},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-19474742":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":28,"sentiment":29,"stance_mix":30,"scored_comments":34,"aspects":35,"strip":43,"post_text":44,"what":45,"said":57,"maker_in_thread":185,"shape":193,"grid":195,"attempts":294,"same_week":295,"maker_shows":186,"maker_hidden":324,"reader_version":325,"card":326},"19474742","Predibly","A social platform to record and debate predictions of the future","title","Show HN: A social platform to record and debate predictions of the future","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.predibly.com\u002F","predibly.com","tompec",1553408089,2019,78,39,604,2195,28,"notable","consumer_social","prediction social platform","web_app",[24,25,26,27],"predictions","forecasting","debate","social platform","curious",-0.047,{"positive":31,"neutral":32,"mixed":31,"critical":33},3,12,5,23,{"idea":36,"execution":38,"design":41,"docs":42},{"positive":37,"critical":37},2,{"positive":39,"critical":40},0,1,{"positive":40,"critical":39},{"positive":39,"critical":37},[40,31,31,31,39,31,31,39,39,31,39,40,31,39,31,39,31,40,40,31,39,31,31,31,39,33,31,40,39,39,39,39,39,33,39,39,31,33,39],null,{"problem":46,"audience":44,"pricing":44,"motivation":44,"time_to_build":44,"stack":53,"openness":54,"stage":55,"team_size":56},{"value":47,"source":48,"evidence":49},"Publicly recording predictions of the future and discussing them","maker",[50],{"id":51,"by":11,"text":52},"19474753","Hi there, My friend Nathan and I recently launched Predibly.com: a social platform to publicly share your predictions of the future and have interesting conversations about them.…",[],"unknown","launched","team",{"praise":58,"objections":79,"requests":102,"questions":125,"alternatives":140},[59,71],{"value":60,"source":61,"evidence":62},"Nice design","commenter",[63,67],{"id":64,"by":65,"text":66},"19475094","azimovsky","Nice design.",{"id":68,"by":69,"text":70},"19475484","danielscrubs","I really like the design! I would like a filter for controversial, having people add: The earth will still exist in 2020, is not so interesting. I normally don't like…",{"value":72,"source":61,"evidence":73},"Useful idea with a good UI",[74,78],{"id":75,"by":76,"text":77},"19475007","jobigoud","I like it! Love that you can sort by time of prediction or by time of post\u002Fpopularity. Sort by \"controversial\" could be nice. As soon as you have more than a dozen you will need…",{"id":68,"by":69,"text":70},[80,91,98],{"value":81,"source":61,"evidence":82},"Predictions are not validated or given odds, so accuracy cannot be measured",[83,87],{"id":84,"by":85,"text":86},"19476186","Emma_Goldman","The problem with this is that predictions should, ideally, be clearly specified, offer a percentage estimate (0-100% likelihood), and have some reliable method of validating the…",{"id":88,"by":89,"text":90},"19475271","unusximmortalis","Who will validate the predictions? Manual validation will not scale.",{"value":92,"source":61,"evidence":93},"Legal disclaimer, about page and data handling are missing",[94],{"id":95,"by":96,"text":97},"19475953","antpls","Interesting, but there is no legal disclaimer, about page, corporation, cookie usage information, etc Does that mean you don't log in anyway any information about visitor, and…",{"value":99,"source":61,"evidence":100},"Twitter sign-up is required",[101],{"id":75,"by":76,"text":77},[103,107,112,119],{"value":104,"source":61,"evidence":105},"Categories or hashtags",[106],{"id":75,"by":76,"text":77},{"value":108,"source":61,"evidence":109},"Controversial sort and filter",[110,111],{"id":75,"by":76,"text":77},{"id":68,"by":69,"text":70},{"value":113,"source":61,"evidence":114},"API access",[115],{"id":116,"by":117,"text":118},"19475139","johnchristopher","Is there an API? Could I build a betting site around it?",{"value":120,"source":61,"evidence":121},"Email sign-up",[122],{"id":123,"by":11,"text":124},"19475065","Glad you like the idea! Categories are on our list of features to implement. We're thinking about hashtags like Twitter does. Yeah, Signup with Twitter was mostly to accelerate…",[126,133],{"value":127,"source":61,"evidence":128},"Who validates the predictions?",[129,130],{"id":88,"by":89,"text":90},{"id":131,"by":89,"text":132},"19475284","Who's validating if I am right and the crowd is wrong?",{"value":134,"source":61,"evidence":135},"Abuse flagging policy",[136],{"id":137,"by":138,"text":139},"19475076","anigbrowl","It's cool. Develop an abuse flagging policy early.",[141,149,160,171,178],{"value":142,"source":61,"evidence":143},"Good Judgement Project",[144,145],{"id":84,"by":85,"text":86},{"id":146,"by":147,"text":148},"19475483","BeniBoy","A relevant episode of EconTalk[1]. If I remember correctly, Philip Tetlock is running a continuous betting project to try to determine what characterize good forecasters.…",{"value":150,"source":61,"evidence":151},"Longbets",[152,156],{"id":153,"by":154,"text":155},"19475202","zbuf","Nice idea! In case you haven't seen it, this site uses a similar concept: http:\u002F\u002Flongbets.org\u002F",{"id":157,"by":158,"text":159},"19476714","binaryorganic","My favorite prediction from a similar site: http:\u002F\u002Flongbets.org\u002F601\u002F Jeremy Keith bet that “The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org\u002F601) will no longer be…",{"value":161,"source":61,"evidence":162},"Augur",[163,167],{"id":164,"by":165,"text":166},"19477590","Geee","There's Augur https:\u002F\u002Fwww.augur.net\u002F that's a decentralized protocol for predictions. You can bet on predictions or use the prediction and outcome data in your decisions.",{"id":168,"by":169,"text":170},"19476971","foundart","There’s such a system built on Ethereum: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.augur.net\u002F",{"value":172,"source":61,"evidence":173},"PredictionBook",[174],{"id":175,"by":176,"text":177},"19476557","lettergram","If you haven’t seen it, I recommend predictionbook.com. Honestly, not as nice as what was shared from a UI perspective. However, the user experience on predictionbook.com appears…",{"value":179,"source":61,"evidence":180},"Hunches",[181],{"id":182,"by":183,"text":184},"19474969","mgraczyk","I have a similar site I've been working on, although ours is more focused on betting and quantifying accuracy. It's https:\u002F\u002Fhunches.app",{"comments":186,"answered":40,"key":187},4,[188,189,192],{"id":51,"text":52},{"id":190,"text":191},"19475151","Will do, thanks for the tip!",{"id":123,"text":124},{"commenters":194,"max_depth":33,"maker_replies":186,"first_comment_mins":186,"lifespan_hours":32},29,[196,198,202,205,207,211,214,216,218,220,221,222,225,226,229,231,233,235,236,239,241,243,245,249,251,253,257,259,260,262,265,268,270,273,277,280,281,286,289],[84,39,40,197,85,39],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea",[199,40,31,200,201,39],"19475071","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","wiggler00m",[203,40,31,200,204,39],"19475075","HHalvi",[88,40,31,206,89,39],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[208,40,39,209,210,39],"19475490","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","MRD85",[212,40,31,200,213,39],"19475676","Y_Y",[164,40,31,215,165,39],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[157,37,39,217,158,39],"other\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[51,31,39,219,11,40],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[137,31,31,206,138,39],[190,31,39,219,11,40],[223,31,40,224,213,39],"19475682","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fexecution",[146,186,31,215,147,39],[227,186,39,217,228,39],"19475777","paulgb",[75,33,31,230,76,39],"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fdesign",[123,33,39,232,11,40],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[182,234,31,200,183,39],6,[131,234,40,197,89,39],[237,234,40,238,228,39],"19475822","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fdocs",[153,240,31,215,154,39],7,[242,240,39,217,89,39],"19475312",[68,244,31,230,69,39],8,[246,247,31,200,248,39],"19475785",9,"black_puppydog",[116,250,31,200,117,39],10,[252,250,39,219,11,40],"19475156",[254,250,33,255,256,39],"19476014","project\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea","fiatjaf",[175,258,31,230,176,39],11,[95,32,40,238,96,39],[261,32,39,209,256,39],"19476009",[263,32,39,264,96,39],"19476342","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fprivacy",[266,32,39,209,267,39],"19476723","buzzerbetrayed",[269,32,39,264,96,39],"19477755",[271,32,39,264,272,39],"19476052","vcavallo",[274,275,33,255,276,39],"19475397",13,"hestefisk",[278,275,39,217,279,39],"19475437","mxxx",[168,275,39,217,169,39],[282,283,31,284,285,39],"19475624",14,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign","chdaniel",[64,287,33,288,65,39],15,"project\u002Fpositive\u002Fdesign",[290,291,39,292,293,39],"19475098",16,"other\u002Fcritical\u002Fnone","chobeat",[],[296,301,306,311,315,319],{"id":297,"name":298,"points":299,"category":300},"19455441","Color Supply",591,"creative",{"id":302,"name":303,"points":304,"category":305},"19468993","Everything I Know Wiki",434,"productivity",{"id":307,"name":308,"points":309,"category":310},"19482280","Baxx",424,"infrastructure",{"id":312,"name":313,"points":314,"category":300},"19474853","ManyPixels Gallery",295,{"id":316,"name":317,"points":318,"category":300},"19454962","stereogram-raycaster",277,{"id":320,"name":321,"points":322,"category":323},"19492406","automl-gs",172,"ai",false,"v2",{"id":327,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":324,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":28,"s":328,"top":18,"kw":329,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":39,"strip":330,"url":9,"mix":331,"praise":60,"objection":81,"sub":21},19474742,-0.05,[24,25,26,27],"133303300301303031130333053100000500350",[31,32,31,33],1793990987466]