[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":889},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-19704418":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":28,"sentiment":29,"stance_mix":30,"scored_comments":35,"aspects":36,"strip":46,"post_text":49,"what":50,"said":76,"maker_in_thread":187,"shape":192,"grid":197,"attempts":849,"same_week":850,"maker_shows":48,"maker_hidden":881,"reader_version":882,"card":883},"19704418","Causal (buy-to-rent model)","Should you buy a house and rent it out?","title","Show HN: Should you buy a house and rent it out?","https:\u002F\u002Fcausal.app\u002Fbuy-to-rent\u002F","causal.app","Lukas1994",1555726124,2019,353,243,78,2195,4,"legend","finance_crypto","investment modelling","web_app",[24,25,26,27],"buy to let calculator","rental property returns","monte carlo simulation","uncertainty modelling","mixed",-0.281,{"positive":31,"neutral":32,"mixed":33,"critical":34},8,27,5,22,62,{"execution":37,"idea":40,"pricing":42,"docs":43,"design":44},{"positive":38,"critical":39},0,15,{"positive":33,"critical":41},7,{"positive":38,"critical":38},{"positive":38,"critical":38},{"positive":45,"critical":38},2,[47,38,38,38,48,38,38,38,38,38,38,38,38,48,45,47,38,38,18,33,48,47,38,38,47,47,38,38,38,38,48,45,48,45,18,38,47,45,48,38],1,3,null,{"problem":51,"audience":63,"pricing":49,"motivation":69,"time_to_build":49,"stack":74,"openness":75,"stage":75,"team_size":75},{"value":52,"source":53,"evidence":54},"Working out whether buying a house to rent beats other investments under uncertain inputs.","inferred",[55,59],{"id":56,"by":57,"text":58},"19705149","refrigerator","Hey HN, I’m one of the makers. Enjoying the discussion about buying to rent! We’re building a tool to let anyone create models like this one — models that incorporate uncertainty…",{"id":60,"by":61,"text":62},"19705065","zestyping","I think this is supposed to be more about demonstrating the simulation modelling tool than about houses and rent. The tool looks like a copy of getguesstimate.com. What's new or…",{"value":64,"source":53,"evidence":65},"People considering buying a property to rent out.",[66,68],{"id":67},"post",{"id":56,"by":57,"text":58},{"value":70,"source":71,"evidence":72},"Tool for building uncertainty models, with a buy-to-rent demo model.","commenter",[73],{"id":56,"by":57,"text":58},[],"unknown",{"praise":77,"objections":92,"requests":131,"questions":154,"alternatives":163},[78,85],{"value":79,"source":71,"evidence":80},"Clean visualisations and simple presentation.",[81],{"id":82,"by":83,"text":84},"19707820","granto","Great visualizations and simple clean presentation. I tried to use a number of these simple tools to evaluate investment properties but they were usually too high level. I ended…",{"value":86,"source":71,"evidence":87},"Useful demo of the simulation tool.",[88],{"id":89,"by":90,"text":91},"19704881","anm89","This is pretty cool. One thing that feels like a serious oversight though is that it isn't factoring in taxes. Rental income is taxable income. If you depreciate the property to…",[93,104,116,127],{"value":94,"source":71,"evidence":95},"Ignores inflation.",[96,100],{"id":97,"by":98,"text":99},"19706581","raviolo","Calculations of this model are misleading. One hugely important parameter missing: inflation rate. This would tell us what part of that 2.1 million in 30 years is real return and…",{"id":101,"by":102,"text":103},"19705379","lazyjones","Where's inflation in this model?",{"value":105,"source":71,"evidence":106},"Omits property tax, maintenance, vacancy and taxes.",[107,111,115],{"id":108,"by":109,"text":110},"19707455","tonywe64","This definitely is missing property tax and insurance, as well as a bucket for maintenance cost, ex, property management (8-10% monthly estimate), vacancy (5-10% monthly…",{"id":112,"by":113,"text":114},"19704914","burlesona","As others have pointed out this model is oversimplified and doesn’t break out maintenance and taxes. 1% is unreasonably low for both considering that 1% is a low property tax…",{"id":89,"by":90,"text":91},{"value":117,"source":71,"evidence":118},"Appreciation and variance modelling is mathematically off.",[119,123],{"id":120,"by":121,"text":122},"19707099","smallnamespace","The math on appreciation rate is a bit off because of how risk adds up to itself over time. For example, if you assumed 3 +\u002F- 3% appreciation, then the calculator applies that…",{"id":124,"by":125,"text":126},"19707471","usaar333","Pretty cool demo for causal.app. Feedback on the framework itself: * I found the interface to widen\u002Fnarrow the variance of ranges painful to use. Why not just let me plug in an…",{"value":128,"source":71,"evidence":129},"Ignores transaction costs and illiquidity of property.",[130],{"id":112,"by":113,"text":114},[132,140,147],{"value":133,"source":71,"evidence":134},"Model inflation.",[135,136],{"id":101,"by":102,"text":103},{"id":137,"by":138,"text":139},"19706126","beejiu","It does not seem to take either inflation or lost growth on the down-payment. These two factors have a huge impact on evaluating property against other investments. It would be…",{"value":141,"source":71,"evidence":142},"Show annual return percentage.",[143],{"id":144,"by":145,"text":146},"19706823","11thEarlOfMar","Nice. Some questions: - How are you modeling property tax payments? - Would be nice to show the annual return for the investment. You have a chart, I can read it so see whether…",{"value":148,"source":71,"evidence":149},"Support multi-family and house hacking.",[150],{"id":151,"by":152,"text":153},"19705883","frankbreetz","Hey, I really like the app and have signed up. One thing I would add is multi- family units. Even better would be the concept of \"house hacking\" or buying a multi-family and…",[155,159],{"value":156,"source":71,"evidence":157},"Where is inflation in the model?",[158],{"id":101,"by":102,"text":103},{"value":160,"source":71,"evidence":161},"How is property tax modelled?",[162],{"id":144,"by":145,"text":146},[164,168,176],{"value":165,"source":71,"evidence":166},"Guesstimate",[167],{"id":60,"by":61,"text":62},{"value":169,"source":71,"evidence":170},"Spreadsheets and Excel",[171,175],{"id":172,"by":173,"text":174},"19705498","ww520","It seems the simulation just gives the upper bound and lower bound based on the input ranges. A spreadsheet model can do the same thing by running the model with different input…",{"id":82,"by":83,"text":84},{"value":177,"source":71,"evidence":178},"REITs such as VNQ",[179,183],{"id":180,"by":181,"text":182},"19705784","jgr447","Any data supporting the appreciation of 4% a year? This seems socially much more acceptable to taking a loan and then invest the money in stocks for example, but to me is not…",{"id":184,"by":185,"text":186},"19706483","achenatx","The huge advantage of housing is that the government essentially supports infrastructure to get massive leverage. With 1:5 or 1:10 leverage, 10% appreciation with 1:10 leverage…",{"comments":47,"answered":38,"key":188},[189],{"id":190,"text":191},"19705001","Good points — We did kinda assume that the buyer would set the rent to at least cover her ongoing costs. In the UK, for example, you can only get a “buy to let” mortgage if you…",{"commenters":193,"max_depth":194,"maker_replies":47,"first_comment_mins":195,"lifespan_hours":196},145,10,167,221,[198,202,206,209,212,215,218,221,225,228,231,234,236,239,242,244,246,249,252,254,256,258,260,262,265,269,273,277,280,282,285,289,291,294,297,299,301,303,306,309,311,313,316,319,321,324,326,330,333,336,338,341,344,347,350,353,356,359,362,365,368,371,374,378,380,382,386,388,391,393,395,398,401,403,406,409,411,414,417,419,422,426,429,431,434,437,440,443,445,448,451,452,456,459,462,465,468,470,473,475,478,480,482,484,487,490,493,495,498,499,501,505,509,513,516,518,521,524,526,529,531,534,538,539,542,545,547,549,551,554,557,560,562,565,567,570,573,576,578,580,582,584,586,588,590,592,594,596,600,602,604,607,610,612,614,616,618,620,624,627,630,633,635,637,640,643,646,648,650,652,654,656,658,660,662,664,666,669,671,674,677,679,681,684,688,690,693,695,697,699,701,703,705,709,713,716,719,721,724,725,727,729,731,733,735,737,740,744,748,751,754,758,761,765,767,771,775,779,783,785,788,792,796,799,802,804,808,810,814,816,818,822,824,827,829,831,833,836,838,842,845,847],[199,38,47,200,201,38],"19705032","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fexecution","frabcus",[203,38,38,204,205,38],"19705070","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","rwmj",[207,38,38,204,208,38],"19705301","benj111",[210,38,38,204,211,38],"19705332","z3t4",[213,38,38,204,214,38],"19705426","chii",[216,38,38,204,217,38],"19705482","kgwgk",[219,38,38,220,208,38],"19705487","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[222,38,38,223,224,38],"19706011","other\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","lizknope",[226,38,38,204,227,38],"19706043","e12e",[229,38,38,204,230,38],"19706189","sokoloff",[232,38,38,204,233,38],"19707306","_ah",[235,38,38,204,230,38],"19707500",[237,38,38,223,238,38],"19705701","tonyedgecombe",[240,38,38,204,241,38],"19706138","retiredcoder",[243,38,38,223,205,38],"19706268",[245,38,38,204,241,38],"19706295",[247,38,38,223,248,38],"19706504","repsilat",[250,38,38,223,251,38],"19706878","cosmoharrigan",[253,38,38,223,248,38],"19707126",[255,38,38,204,241,38],"19707398",[257,38,38,204,241,38],"19707373",[259,38,38,223,248,38],"19707654",[261,38,38,204,238,38],"19707852",[263,38,38,223,264,38],"19705762","xixixao",[266,38,48,267,268,38],"19705078","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","wtvanhest",[270,38,48,271,272,38],"19705356","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fpricing","YokoZar",[274,38,38,275,276,38],"19705374","other\u002Fneutral\u002Fpricing","taurath",[278,38,38,275,279,38],"19705411","m-i-l",[281,38,38,204,241,38],"19706147",[283,38,38,275,284,38],"19705425","lukevdp",[286,38,38,287,288,38],"19705681","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fpricing","verbify",[290,38,38,275,284,38],"19710090",[292,38,38,223,293,38],"19706196","nkozyra",[295,38,38,204,296,38],"19707228","sizzle",[298,38,38,204,293,38],"19711652",[300,38,38,204,296,38],"19714177",[302,38,38,275,205,38],"19706304",[304,38,38,204,305,38],"19705644","skdotdan",[307,38,38,223,308,38],"19705655","DanBC",[310,38,38,204,305,38],"19705677",[312,38,38,223,238,38],"19705690",[314,38,38,223,315,38],"19706355","dd36",[317,38,38,223,318,38],"19706785","mcguire",[320,38,38,223,315,38],"19749073",[322,38,38,204,323,38],"19705687","raverbashing",[325,38,38,204,305,38],"19705710",[327,38,38,328,329,38],"19705751","other\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea","apathy",[331,38,38,223,332,38],"19705785","bufferoverflow",[334,38,38,204,335,38],"19705922","ncphillips",[337,38,38,223,332,38],"19706150",[339,38,38,223,340,38],"19706288","Frost1x",[342,38,38,223,343,38],"19705951","YorkshireSeason",[345,38,38,346,329,38],"19706357","commenter\u002Fpositive\u002Fnone",[348,38,38,204,349,38],"19706627","NullPrefix",[351,38,38,223,352,38],"19705955","spacesuitman2",[354,38,38,223,355,38],"19707016","freshm087",[357,38,38,223,358,38],"19707496","MandieD",[360,38,38,223,361,38],"19705961","docbrown",[363,38,38,223,364,38],"19705967","mrighele",[366,38,38,204,367,38],"19706433","diegolo",[369,38,38,204,370,38],"19707097","cblum",[372,38,38,223,373,38],"19706568","cobbzilla",[375,38,38,376,377,38],"19706599","other\u002Fcritical\u002Fnone","u801e",[379,38,38,204,373,38],"19706647",[381,38,38,204,329,38],"19714289",[383,38,38,384,385,38],"19706616","other\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","bob1029",[387,38,38,220,121,38],"19707038",[389,38,38,223,390,38],"19712799","tasuki",[392,38,38,223,329,38],"19714282",[394,38,38,223,329,38],"19714263",[396,38,38,204,397,38],"19706707","fbonetti",[399,38,38,204,400,38],"19707030","JamesBarney",[402,38,38,204,296,38],"19707190",[404,38,38,223,405,38],"19707241","goostavos",[407,38,38,223,408,38],"19707673","rabidrat",[410,38,38,223,397,38],"19707777",[412,38,38,223,413,38],"19721262","mars4rp",[415,38,38,204,416,38],"19708779","quickthrower2",[418,38,38,204,329,38],"19714244",[420,38,38,223,421,38],"19706942","alistairSH",[423,38,48,424,425,38],"19705959","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution","jefftk",[427,38,38,384,428,38],"19707355","bionsystem",[89,47,48,430,90,38],"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fexecution",[432,47,48,433,57,38],"19704912","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[435,47,48,424,436,38],"19707290","Terretta",[438,47,47,200,439,38],"19712177","propogandist",[441,47,48,424,442,38],"19705041","zentrus",[444,47,38,220,208,38],"19705343",[446,47,48,424,447,38],"19706305","chrisweekly",[449,47,47,200,450,38],"19706313","evrydayhustling",[97,45,47,200,98,38],[453,45,47,454,455,38],"19706765","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea","zenkat",[457,45,38,220,458,38],"19707094","evancox100",[460,45,38,204,461,38],"19707276","tyxodiwktis",[463,45,47,200,464,38],"19707323","D_Alex",[466,48,38,223,467,38],"19704984","jaabe",[469,48,38,204,208,38],"19705367",[471,48,38,204,472,38],"19705525","tluyben2",[474,48,38,204,208,38],"19705694",[476,48,38,204,477,38],"19706544","grey-area",[479,48,38,204,208,38],"19707464",[481,48,38,204,477,38],"19708389",[483,48,38,204,467,38],"19717530",[485,48,38,204,486,38],"19705549","high_derivative",[488,48,38,204,489,38],"19705980","DogLover_",[491,48,38,223,492,38],"19708681","IkmoIkmo",[494,48,38,223,241,38],"19706174",[496,48,38,204,497,38],"19711573","imtringued",[108,18,47,200,109,38],[56,33,33,500,57,38],"maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[502,33,48,503,504,38],"19705154","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs","jedharris",[506,33,48,507,508,38],"19705214","project\u002Fmixed\u002Fdesign","kartickv",[510,33,33,511,512,38],"19705419","project\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea","georgespencer",[514,33,48,515,57,38],"19705596","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[517,33,48,267,512,38],"19705601",[519,33,33,520,57,38],"19707585","maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fnone",[522,33,33,511,523,38],"19708919","somberi",[525,33,48,515,57,38],"19711426",[527,33,33,511,528,38],"19709778","lapnitnelav",[530,33,48,267,477,38],"19706552",[532,33,33,511,533,38],"19707677","jwr",[535,536,38,223,537,38],"19706370",6,"le-mark",[184,41,38,223,185,38],[540,31,48,430,541,38],"19706324","kyrieeschaton",[543,31,38,204,544,38],"19706360","Aeolun",[546,31,38,204,450,38],"19706461",[548,31,38,204,541,38],"19706641",[172,550,47,454,173,38],9,[552,194,38,223,553,38],"19704938","areyouseriousxx",[555,194,38,223,556,38],"19704957","xvedejas",[558,194,38,223,559,38],"19704986","rwnspace",[561,194,38,204,556,38],"19705220",[563,194,38,204,564,38],"19706375","Retra",[566,194,38,204,559,38],"19706441",[568,194,38,223,569,38],"19705168","WillPostForFood",[571,194,38,223,572,38],"19705257","taneq",[574,194,38,223,575,38],"19705517","badpun",[577,194,38,204,230,38],"19706239",[579,194,38,204,397,38],"19707292",[581,194,38,204,553,38],"19707932",[583,194,38,204,230,38],"19707955",[585,194,38,204,553,38],"19708045",[587,194,38,204,230,38],"19708095",[589,194,38,204,553,38],"19708339",[591,194,38,204,230,38],"19708713",[593,194,38,204,497,38],"19711604",[595,194,38,204,230,38],"19711646",[597,598,47,454,599,38],"19704893",11,"amscanne",[190,598,38,601,11,47],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[603,598,47,454,599,38],"19707807",[605,598,47,454,606,38],"19705152","nostrademons",[608,598,38,204,609,38],"19705190","speedplane",[611,598,38,204,208,38],"19705409",[613,598,38,204,230,38],"19706237",[615,598,38,204,208,38],"19707029",[60,617,47,454,61,38],12,[619,617,48,601,57,38],"19705293",[621,622,38,223,623,38],"19705446",13,"time4tea",[625,622,38,223,626,38],"19705534","amelius",[628,622,38,223,629,38],"19705665","bubblewrap",[631,622,38,223,632,38],"19706069","kitten_mittens_",[634,622,38,223,230,38],"19706221",[636,622,38,223,629,38],"19708796",[638,622,38,204,639,38],"19705541","solipsism",[641,622,38,204,642,38],"19705970","rubyfan",[644,622,38,223,645,38],"19705983","andy_ppp",[647,622,38,223,629,38],"19705668",[649,622,38,204,288,38],"19705689",[651,622,38,223,629,38],"19708816",[653,622,38,204,288,38],"19708995",[655,622,38,223,629,38],"19723330",[657,622,38,204,288,38],"19770240",[659,622,38,204,629,38],"19776487",[661,622,38,223,332,38],"19705802",[663,622,38,223,241,38],"19706209",[665,622,38,204,332,38],"19706628",[667,622,38,223,668,38],"19707232","4rtergsedhg",[670,622,38,204,241,38],"19707294",[672,622,38,223,673,38],"19706028","lotsofpulp",[675,622,38,204,676,38],"19706525","wwqrd",[678,622,38,204,673,38],"19706850",[680,622,38,204,676,38],"19709787",[682,622,38,204,683,38],"19707367","HeWhoLurksLate",[685,686,48,267,687,38],"19705294",14,"Kip9000",[689,686,48,267,57,38],"19707691",[691,39,38,223,692,38],"19705600","blunte",[694,39,38,223,683,38],"19707267",[112,696,47,200,113,38],16,[180,698,48,267,181,38],17,[124,700,48,430,125,38],18,[702,700,48,433,57,38],"19707821",[704,700,47,200,125,38],"19708001",[706,707,38,223,708,38],"19706574",19,"mattrp",[710,711,38,223,712,38],"19705229",20,"nodesocket",[714,711,38,223,715,38],"19706085","scarface74",[717,711,38,223,718,38],"19706529","tinyhouse",[720,711,38,223,715,38],"19706642",[82,722,33,723,83,38],21,"project\u002Fpositive\u002Fdesign",[120,34,47,200,121,38],[726,34,47,200,125,38],"19707605",[728,34,48,433,57,38],"19707988",[730,34,47,200,121,38],"19709823",[732,34,48,433,57,38],"19711398",[734,34,48,430,121,38],"19712830",[151,736,48,267,152,38],23,[144,738,48,739,145,38],24,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[741,742,33,723,743,38],"19709090",25,"agilebyte",[745,746,48,267,747,38],"19704987",26,"bertjk",[749,32,38,223,750,38],"19706113","eruci",[752,32,38,223,753,38],"19706157","bsdnoob",[755,756,38,223,757,38],"19704924",28,"wsdfsayy",[759,756,38,223,760,38],"19705188","anbop",[762,763,38,223,764,38],"19706532",29,"orasis",[766,763,38,223,296,38],"19707299",[768,769,38,223,770,38],"19707090",30,"ljsocal",[772,773,38,223,774,38],"19711297",31,"alok-g",[776,777,38,223,778,38],"19706608",32,"ianai",[780,781,38,223,782,38],"19705647",33,"throwaway193855",[137,784,47,200,138,38],34,[786,784,38,223,787,38],"19706215","robertAngst",[789,790,38,223,791,38],"19705878",35,"myroon5",[793,794,47,454,795,38],"19708702",36,"cyphunk",[797,798,47,200,450,38],"19705916",37,[800,798,47,200,801,38],"19706699","hornbaker",[803,798,48,433,57,38],"19707611",[805,806,47,200,807,38],"19706930",38,"mfatica",[809,806,48,433,57,38],"19707591",[811,812,48,267,813,38],"19705211",39,"fouc",[815,812,48,424,57,38],"19705224",[101,817,48,424,102,38],40,[819,820,38,376,821,38],"19705766",41,"elliotpage",[823,820,38,204,332,38],"19705774",[825,820,38,204,826,38],"19705900","kd5bjo",[828,820,38,223,668,38],"19707255",[830,820,38,204,416,38],"19708853",[832,820,38,223,821,38],"19729227",[834,820,38,204,835,38],"19705950","Alterlife",[837,820,38,204,821,38],"19729221",[839,840,38,223,841,38],"19705228",42,"andrewfromx",[843,840,38,204,844,38],"19705254","pjc50",[846,840,38,220,609,38],"19705267",[848,840,38,220,102,38],"19705376",[],[851,856,861,866,871,876],{"id":852,"name":853,"points":854,"category":855},"19738838","layer",251,"ai",{"id":857,"name":858,"points":859,"category":860},"19705440","Darwin Mail",218,"productivity",{"id":862,"name":863,"points":864,"category":865},"19705511","Mockit",158,"dev_tools",{"id":867,"name":868,"points":869,"category":870},"19707660","Tetris",135,"games",{"id":872,"name":873,"points":874,"category":875},"19694578","hncynic",114,"creative",{"id":877,"name":878,"points":879,"category":880},"19712617","BepuPhysics",108,"languages",false,"v2",{"id":884,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":881,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":28,"s":885,"top":18,"kw":886,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":38,"strip":887,"url":9,"mix":888,"praise":79,"objection":94,"sub":21},19704418,-0.28,[24,25,26,27],"1000300000000321004531001100003232401230",[31,32,33,34],1794036576839]