[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":284},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-21625974":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":27,"sentiment":28,"stance_mix":29,"scored_comments":33,"aspects":34,"strip":40,"post_text":43,"what":44,"said":79,"maker_in_thread":168,"shape":179,"grid":182,"attempts":241,"same_week":247,"maker_shows":41,"maker_hidden":276,"reader_version":277,"card":278},"21625974","Causal","Excel Sensitivity Analysis Tool","title","Show HN: Excel Sensitivity Analysis Tool","https:\u002F\u002Fcausal.app\u002Fsensitivity","causal.app","Lukas1994",1574664255,2019,148,30,292,2195,14,"notable","web_saas","spreadsheet modelling","web_app",[24,25,21,26],"sensitivity analysis","excel","monte carlo","curious",-0.089,{"positive":30,"neutral":31,"mixed":30,"critical":32},1,17,2,21,{"idea":35,"design":37,"execution":38,"pricing":39},{"positive":36,"critical":30},0,{"positive":36,"critical":36},{"positive":36,"critical":30},{"positive":36,"critical":36},[41,41,41,41,41,36,41,36,36,36,41,36,41,30,36,41,41,36,41,41,41,41,41,30,36,42,36,41,41,41],3,5,null,{"problem":45,"audience":56,"pricing":43,"motivation":65,"time_to_build":43,"stack":70,"openness":77,"stage":78,"team_size":77},{"value":46,"source":47,"evidence":48},"Spreadsheet models hide which assumptions most affect results; sensitivity analysis is cumbersome to do in Excel","maker",[49,53],{"id":50,"by":51,"text":52},"21626254","refrigerator","Hi folks! Lukas (Lukas1994) and I built this. If you have a spreadsheet model, it lets you answer questions like \"Which variable in my model is the most important?\" and \"If I…",{"id":54,"by":11,"text":55},"21628271","Hi, we’re familiar with Excel Solver but it doesn’t let you run a sensitivity analysis. You can do it using data tables which is (a) not that easy to set up and (b) can be quite…",{"value":57,"source":58,"evidence":59},"People building financial or other spreadsheet models","inferred",[60,61],{"id":50,"by":51,"text":52},{"id":62,"by":63,"text":64},"21627820","throwawayhhakdl","Do you have a sense for how many people are competent modelers enough to use a tool like this- AND who work primarily in excel? My instinct would be to say small, but it is…",{"value":66,"source":67,"evidence":68},"Make sensitivity analysis of spreadsheet models easier; a broader goal to replace Excel for modelling","commenter",[69],{"id":50,"by":51,"text":52},[71],{"value":72,"source":47,"evidence":73},"Python SALib library",[74],{"id":75,"by":11,"text":76},"21626304","Yes, right now we assume independence. SALib recently added a few algorithms that can handle correlation: https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FSALib\u002FSALib\u002Fissues\u002F193#issuecomment-551955158 I'm…","unknown","launched",{"praise":80,"objections":88,"requests":108,"questions":119,"alternatives":145},[81],{"value":82,"source":67,"evidence":83},"Useful idea; Guesstimate and similar tools exist",[84],{"id":85,"by":86,"text":87},"21626606","ricksunny","In fact there is an example of this kind of sensitivity analysis tool already offered at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.getguesstimate.com (not my venture, but a friend’s). It’s like a spreadsheet…",[89,95,102],{"value":90,"source":67,"evidence":91},"Assumes independent input variables, a limitation for dependent inputs",[92],{"id":93,"by":51,"text":94},"21626290","Yep — we assume that the input variables are independent. This is more acceptable in some settings than others, so as always, it's good to understand the limitations of the…",{"value":96,"source":67,"evidence":97},"Excel is error-prone for important models",[98],{"id":99,"by":100,"text":101},"21632940","emarsden","There are three answers to this: - Do you really want to be using important models in such an error-prone and difficult to test environment as Excel? There's a whole Spreadsheet…",{"value":103,"source":67,"evidence":104},"Only uniform input distributions in the sensitivity analysis",[105],{"id":106,"by":51,"text":107},"21626816","We actually assume uniform distributions for the inputs of the sensitivity analysis. This tool is a standalone thing, and you're right — it's similar to TopRank. Our actual…",[109],{"value":110,"source":67,"evidence":111},"Support for dependent input variables",[112,116],{"id":113,"by":114,"text":115},"21626265","sheikheddy","I see you're using a variance based approach. How does it handle a dependent structure? To my knowledge, Sobol indices assume that the input variables are independent.",{"id":117,"by":114,"text":118},"21626475","There has been some exploration into variance based global sensitivity analysis for models with dependent inputs. [1][2][3]…",[120,127,138],{"value":121,"source":67,"evidence":122},"How it differs from Excel data tables and tornado plots",[123],{"id":124,"by":125,"text":126},"21628051","omarhaneef","Hi Lukas. Thanks for making this. I will ask the obvious question: how is this different from the sensitivity analysis provided in the built in data table functionality? I'll say…",{"value":128,"source":67,"evidence":129},"How it differs from Excel Solver and Palisade @Risk",[130,134],{"id":131,"by":132,"text":133},"21627911","zozbot234","I don't want to dismiss this out of hand, but what does it do that the Excel Solver doesn't? Excel, LibreOffice Calc etc. are very comprehensive tools, that include a lot of…",{"id":135,"by":136,"text":137},"21626470","omega3","Does it cover a different use case compared to Palisade @Risk?",{"value":139,"source":67,"evidence":140},"How users without modelling expertise avoid misusing the statistics",[141],{"id":142,"by":143,"text":144},"21640146","6gvONxR4sf7o","I'm late to the party. Hoping you can answer a question. On the one hand, you're lowering the bar to do useful statistical work, which is awesome. A new set of people will be…",[146,150,157,161],{"value":147,"source":67,"evidence":148},"Guesstimate",[149],{"id":85,"by":86,"text":87},{"value":151,"source":67,"evidence":152},"Palisade @Risk and TopRank",[153,154],{"id":135,"by":136,"text":137},{"id":155,"by":136,"text":156},"21626678","Thanks for the reply. Does your tool assume that the variables are normally distributed for the Monte Carlo analysis you run? It looks like your tool is closer to TopRank from…",{"value":158,"source":67,"evidence":159},"Excel data tables",[160],{"id":124,"by":125,"text":126},{"value":162,"source":67,"evidence":163},"Sheetless",[164],{"id":165,"by":166,"text":167},"21626610","pgt","Also: https:\u002F\u002Fsheetless.io\u002F Relevant to understanding causality in systems: https:\u002F\u002Fen.wikipedia.org\u002Fwiki\u002FTwelve_leverage_points",{"comments":169,"answered":170,"key":171},8,4,[172,173,176],{"id":75,"text":76},{"id":174,"text":175},"21635265","Can you elaborate on that?",{"id":177,"text":178},"21690708","Sorry for the late reply, just saw your comment. I think what you're describing is training a model and then using feature importance. This is also a valid method for calculating…",{"commenters":18,"max_depth":42,"maker_replies":169,"first_comment_mins":180,"lifespan_hours":181},77,193,[183,185,186,187,188,189,190,193,195,198,199,200,202,203,205,207,208,209,210,211,213,214,215,218,223,226,229,232,237,240],[50,36,41,184,51,36],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[113,36,41,184,114,36],[93,36,41,184,51,36],[117,36,41,184,114,36],[142,36,41,184,143,36],[75,36,36,184,11,30],[191,36,41,184,192,36],"21630969","sansnomme",[174,36,36,194,11,30],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[196,36,36,197,192,36],"21635407","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[177,36,36,197,11,30],[124,30,41,184,125,36],[201,30,36,184,11,30],"21628701",[99,30,41,184,100,36],[85,32,30,204,86,36],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea",[206,32,36,184,11,30],"21628920",[165,41,41,184,166,36],[131,170,41,184,132,36],[54,170,36,184,11,30],[135,42,41,184,136,36],[212,42,41,184,51,36],"21626522",[155,42,41,184,136,36],[106,42,41,184,51,36],[216,42,41,217,100,36],"21628988","project\u002Fmixed\u002Fdesign",[219,220,30,221,222,36],"21626927",6,"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fexecution","warpech",[224,220,36,225,11,30],"21627084","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs",[227,220,42,228,222,36],"21627940","maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fnone",[230,220,36,231,11,30],"21628044","other\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[233,234,41,235,236,36],"21626983",7,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fpricing","folli",[238,234,41,239,51,36],"21627207","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[62,169,41,239,63,36],[242,246],{"id":243,"t":244,"points":245,"comments":30},"21268970",1571222877,15,{"id":4,"t":12,"points":14,"comments":15},[248,253,258,262,266,271],{"id":249,"name":250,"points":251,"category":252},"21639525","Coscreen.co",404,"dev_tools",{"id":254,"name":255,"points":256,"category":257},"21648096","AnonAddy",393,"productivity",{"id":259,"name":260,"points":261,"category":20},"21617016","Hacker News Title Edit Tracker",366,{"id":263,"name":264,"points":265,"category":252},"21639066","patchbay.pub",362,{"id":267,"name":268,"points":269,"category":270},"21594436","tamagotchi",256,"games",{"id":272,"name":273,"points":274,"category":275},"21627714","IMGZ",248,"infrastructure",false,"v2",{"id":279,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":276,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":27,"s":280,"top":18,"kw":281,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":32,"strip":282,"url":9,"mix":283,"praise":82,"objection":90,"sub":21},21625974,-0.09,[24,25,21,26],"333330300030310330333331050333",[30,31,30,32],1794036583347]