[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":486},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-22616456":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":29,"sentiment":30,"stance_mix":31,"scored_comments":36,"aspects":37,"strip":45,"post_text":48,"what":49,"said":78,"maker_in_thread":181,"shape":192,"grid":197,"attempts":449,"same_week":450,"maker_shows":34,"maker_hidden":478,"reader_version":479,"card":480},"22616456","Covid-19 Interactive Model","Hi everyone, My name is Nicholas Noll, a computational biologist and co-developer of the above tool.","maker","Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model","https:\u002F\u002Fneherlab.org\u002Fcovid19\u002F","neherlab.org","nbnoll",1584538475,2020,291,100,143,3028,5,"legend","infrastructure","epidemiology simulation","web_app",[24,25,26,27,28],"covid-19 model","epidemic simulation","hospital capacity","sir model","interactive simulation","mixed",-0.063,{"positive":32,"neutral":33,"mixed":34,"critical":35},10,17,1,8,36,{"execution":38,"docs":41,"performance":42,"idea":43,"design":44},{"positive":39,"critical":40},0,3,{"positive":39,"critical":39},{"positive":34,"critical":40},{"positive":34,"critical":34},{"positive":34,"critical":34},[39,39,39,18,40,40,40,40,18,18,18,46,40,34,18,40,40,40,39,40,34,47,34,40,39,39,39,39,39,39,39,39,39,39,18,39,39,39,39,34],4,2,null,{"problem":50,"audience":56,"pricing":48,"motivation":60,"time_to_build":48,"stack":64,"openness":75,"stage":76,"team_size":77},{"value":51,"source":7,"evidence":52},"Predicting hospital usage and the effect of quarantine and mitigation measures during COVID-19",[53],{"id":54,"by":11,"text":55},"22629261","Hi everyone, My name is Nicholas Noll, a computational biologist and co-developer of the above tool. As of now there are two other people actively working on this project:…",{"value":57,"source":7,"evidence":58},"Public health officials and hospitals; global communities",[59],{"id":54,"by":11,"text":55},{"value":61,"source":7,"evidence":62},"Help public health officials and hospitals predict local hospital usage and assess quarantine measures",[63],{"id":54,"by":11,"text":55},[65,71],{"value":66,"source":7,"evidence":67},"TypeScript",[68],{"id":69,"by":11,"text":70},"22630093","It's all coded in typescript and javascript. I've been toying around with a more in-depth model in web assembly, but as I alluded to elsewhere in this thread, the coding is slow…",{"value":72,"source":7,"evidence":73},"JavaScript",[74],{"id":69,"by":11,"text":70},"unknown","beta","team",{"praise":79,"objections":92,"requests":128,"questions":151,"alternatives":166},[80],{"value":81,"source":82,"evidence":83},"Useful, appreciated tool","commenter",[84,88],{"id":85,"by":86,"text":87},"22632551","toddm","Thank you for providing a very nice tool that is of use for all of us. Much appreciated!",{"id":89,"by":90,"text":91},"22633197","patrickbuckley","Thank you for making such a great tool. Do you have any plans that will allow the death rate to be adjusted once ICU overflow kicks in? There is going to be a much higher death…",[93,100,110,121],{"value":94,"source":82,"evidence":95},"Default parameters such as mitigation curve and R0 seem pessimistic or unjustified",[96],{"id":97,"by":98,"text":99},"22635799","Ameo","After reading about the implementation of this model and experimenting with different a while, I've made some observations about its behavior and especially about the values that…",{"value":101,"source":82,"evidence":102},"Model ignores ICU capacity effects on death rate (later added by maker)",[103,107],{"id":104,"by":105,"text":106},"22616589","gus_massa","Someone notices in another thread that in this model the death number does not depend on the number of beds or ICUs.",{"id":108,"by":11,"text":109},"22616620","We are working on this! It originally started out just as a visual representation however now it factors into the model. Check out branch feat\u002Fhospital-bed-model",{"value":111,"source":82,"evidence":112},"Interface is confusing and hard to read",[113,117],{"id":114,"by":115,"text":116},"22630328","throwaway_pdp09","Interface is a not great. I wanted to compare US model to what's actually happening (I've been graphing the US curves with public data). Top dropbox is Scenario. Default is…",{"id":118,"by":119,"text":120},"22630872","reubens","I’d be interested in helping out with the front end. Having some issues with display on my iPhone SE. Thanks for the awesome tool!",{"value":122,"source":82,"evidence":123},"Based on China data, not applicable elsewhere",[124],{"id":125,"by":126,"text":127},"22630154","ouid","I closed this after \"based on data from China\". That's almost as bad as basing it on US data.",[129,140,147],{"value":130,"source":82,"evidence":131},"Make severity and fatality assumptions editable or uncertainty-aware",[132,136],{"id":133,"by":134,"text":135},"22629737","guscost","Shouldn't this tool allow for modifying the numbers in the \"Severity assumptions\" section, too? This uses the same estimate from the Imperial College model, which is basically an…",{"id":137,"by":138,"text":139},"22630624","jupp0r","It would be really nice if the uncertainty of fatality and severity information we have right now could be incorporated and visualized. Current reports by the CDC and info from…",{"value":141,"source":82,"evidence":142},"Model how specific activities and closures map to mitigation levels",[143],{"id":144,"by":145,"text":146},"22632232","robhunter","Just a suggestion, but some general thoughts on what activities correspond to what levels of mitigation - eg. are schools closing at 80%, restaurants at 70%? What activities…",{"value":148,"source":82,"evidence":149},"Allow death rate to change when ICU overflow occurs",[150],{"id":89,"by":90,"text":91},[152,159],{"value":153,"source":82,"evidence":154},"Why does reducing infectious period increase the steepness of the curve?",[155],{"id":156,"by":157,"text":158},"22633921","titzer","Why is it when I reduce the infectious period, the steepness of the infection curve increases? That seems wrong.",{"value":160,"source":82,"evidence":161},"Does the US death count projection understate reality?",[162],{"id":163,"by":164,"text":165},"22631090","chisleu","Does it scare anyone that the North \u002F Fast setting for the USA puts the death count at ~1\u002F2 reality for the past few days? Does this indicate that it spread faster than fast?…",[167,174],{"value":168,"source":82,"evidence":169},"Imperial College agent-based model",[170,171],{"id":133,"by":134,"text":135},{"id":172,"by":11,"text":173},"22629829","No worries. I think it's also important to note that the Imperial College study that's gotten a lot of attention recently is an agent-based model - i.e. they simulate actual…",{"value":175,"source":82,"evidence":176},"Sneezemaps",[177],{"id":178,"by":179,"text":180},"22630127","billions","I built Sneezemaps.com to correlate symptoms & confirmed cases US: https:\u002F\u002Fsneezemap.com\u002F?zone=eyJjZW50ZXIiOls0MC4yNzk1MjU2Njg4MTI5MSwtOTguODc2OTUzMTI1MDAwMDFdLCJ6b29tIjo1fQ…",{"comments":182,"answered":183,"key":184},13,6,[185,186,189],{"id":54,"text":55},{"id":187,"text":188},"22629507","In theory, the exponential growth rate of the virus doesn't depend on the population size. It more strongly depends on the population structure - i.e. the average number of…",{"id":190,"text":191},"22630095","Yes I agree. However, I don't think we're close to the inflection point where this is relevant 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