[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":249},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-24350217":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":28,"sentiment":29,"stance_mix":30,"scored_comments":34,"aspects":35,"strip":43,"post_text":46,"what":47,"said":61,"maker_in_thread":142,"shape":153,"grid":155,"attempts":211,"same_week":212,"maker_shows":199,"maker_hidden":242,"reader_version":243,"card":244},"24350217","Alarmism.watch","I made a website that tracks alarmist predictions","title","Show HN: Alarmism.watch – I made a website that tracks alarmist predictions","https:\u002F\u002Falarmism.watch\u002F","alarmism.watch","shubhamjain",1599024310,2020,16,23,1896,3028,63,"shown","other","fact checking","web_app",[24,25,21,26,27],"alarmist predictions","prediction tracker","climate predictions","covid predictions","roasted",-0.5,{"positive":31,"neutral":32,"mixed":31,"critical":33},2,0,10,14,{"pricing":36,"execution":38,"idea":40,"docs":41,"design":42},{"positive":32,"critical":37},1,{"positive":37,"critical":39},4,{"positive":37,"critical":31},{"positive":32,"critical":31},{"positive":32,"critical":37},[37,32,32,37,32,37,37,32,32,37,32,44,37,37,32,37,44,32,45,37,37,45,32],5,3,null,{"problem":48,"audience":46,"pricing":46,"motivation":46,"time_to_build":46,"stack":58,"openness":59,"stage":60,"team_size":59},{"value":49,"source":50,"evidence":51},"Alarmist predictions are made without accountability about whether they came true","inferred",[52,54],{"id":53},"post",{"id":55,"by":56,"text":57},"24351180","rhn_mk1","This seems to have a problem of assuming the timeframe for the fulfillment of vague claims. For example, if the claim: \"U.N. Predicts entire nations could be wiped-off if Global…",[],"unknown","launched",{"praise":62,"objections":75,"requests":110,"questions":122,"alternatives":128},[63],{"value":64,"source":65,"evidence":66},"Good idea and fun to use","commenter",[67,71],{"id":68,"by":69,"text":70},"24351487","tomcam","Not sitting well with the HN hive mind, but I love it. Thanks for a fun and well-executed idea. I predict this comment will be at -4 points by 10am PST 9\u002F2\u002F2020!",{"id":72,"by":73,"text":74},"24351194","mekkkkkk","The idea behind this is brilliant, and I support the sentiment. Unfortunately, for this to work effectively, you really need to be accurate and precise. As others pointed out, a…",[76,87,95,103],{"value":77,"source":65,"evidence":78},"Verdicts are vague, with timeframes and claims that are hard to evaluate",[79,80,84],{"id":55,"by":56,"text":57},{"id":81,"by":82,"text":83},"24351066","autophagian","Some of these are a little odd. You classify the \"Coronavirus pandemic could cause 40 million deaths if left unchecked\" as false, with the explanation that though we're still in…",{"id":85,"by":56,"text":86},"24351447","> If you're making a claim that we are in an economic bubble, you can't claim victory if there's a stock market crash after twenty years. What's the timeframe then? If you are…",{"value":88,"source":65,"evidence":89},"Many Failed verdicts lack sources or cite think tanks",[90,94],{"id":91,"by":92,"text":93},"24350967","CiTyBear","Very interesting. However many \"Failed\" lack of sources. The links used as proof are usually Think Tank which are far from objectives about information.",{"id":72,"by":73,"text":74},{"value":96,"source":65,"evidence":97},"Some verdicts are inaccurate, such as the Siberian climate date and the 40 million deaths claim",[98,102],{"id":99,"by":100,"text":101},"24351038","mosselman","At least make things accurate: The claim 'Britain to have Siberian climate in 20 years' was made in 2004 (according to the table) and its status is 'failed'. Last time I checked…",{"id":81,"by":82,"text":83},{"value":104,"source":65,"evidence":105},"Binary failed status does not show percentage progress",[106],{"id":107,"by":108,"text":109},"24351004","roelb","Think this should show the status as a percentage of the predicted value, not a boolean \"failed\". 99% would still be marked here as Failed?",[111,118],{"value":112,"source":65,"evidence":113},"Add more examples of correct alarmist predictions",[114],{"id":115,"by":116,"text":117},"24351082","bluquark","The list ought to include more of the correct instances of alarmism, and there are plenty to choose from. As they were semi-predictable events (aside from the exact year and…",{"value":119,"source":65,"evidence":120},"Clearer labels for links and sources",[121],{"id":55,"by":56,"text":57},[123],{"value":124,"source":65,"evidence":125},"What timeframe is used for vague predictions",[126,127],{"id":85,"by":56,"text":86},{"id":55,"by":56,"text":57},[129,136],{"value":130,"source":65,"evidence":131},"Longbets",[132],{"id":133,"by":134,"text":135},"24351224","tomcdonnell","More specific claims have been made and held accountable at http:\u002F\u002Flongbets.com.",{"value":137,"source":65,"evidence":138},"Politifact and Snopes",[139],{"id":140,"by":69,"text":141},"24358423","Agreed. Your assessments are at least as commonsensical as Politifact, Snopes, etc.",{"comments":44,"answered":39,"key":143},[144,147,150],{"id":145,"text":146},"24351115","The same model predicted 96K deaths for Sweden, a country that eschewed lockdown measures or mask mandates [1]. The deaths topped at around 6K in Sweden. Sweden did take some…",{"id":148,"text":149},"24351170","Thank you for pointing that. The evidence does suggest that deadly virus mutations aren't that likely, but yes, it is more accurate to say 'Unlikely'.",{"id":151,"text":152},"24351288","I disagree. If you're making a claim that we are in an economic bubble, you can't claim victory if there's a stock market crash after twenty years. Similarly, if you're saying…",{"commenters":14,"max_depth":39,"maker_replies":44,"first_comment_mins":154,"lifespan_hours":14},143,[156,158,160,164,168,170,173,174,177,178,179,182,184,186,189,191,193,196,198,201,205,207,209],[81,32,37,157,82,32],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fpricing",[145,32,32,159,11,37],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea",[161,32,32,162,163,32],"24351336","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","AstralStorm",[165,32,37,166,167,32],"24351161","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fexecution","virgilp",[148,32,32,169,11,37],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[171,32,37,166,172,32],"24358220","jhthenerd",[55,37,37,166,56,32],[175,37,32,162,176,32],"24351235","TheUndead96",[151,37,32,162,11,37],[85,37,37,159,56,32],[180,37,32,181,11,37],"24351478","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[140,37,44,183,69,32],"maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fexecution",[99,31,37,185,100,32],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fdocs",[187,45,37,166,188,32],"24351037","JoshuaDavid",[133,39,32,190,134,32],"other\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[107,44,37,192,108,32],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fdesign",[68,194,44,195,69,32],6,"project\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[197,194,32,162,69,32],"24358051",[72,199,45,200,73,32],7,"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fexecution",[202,203,37,159,204,32],"24352932",8,"jtthe13",[91,206,37,185,92,32],9,[115,33,45,208,116,32],"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fidea",[210,33,32,181,11,37],"24351149",[],[213,218,223,228,232,237],{"id":214,"name":215,"points":216,"category":217},"24323589","WebRTC for the Curious",667,"learning_science",{"id":219,"name":220,"points":221,"category":222},"24304623","vscode-debug-visualizer",509,"dev_tools",{"id":224,"name":225,"points":226,"category":227},"24309237","Healthcare Is Dumb",441,"web_saas",{"id":229,"name":230,"points":231,"category":222},"24323378","Vimac",375,{"id":233,"name":234,"points":235,"category":236},"24305834","pantel.is",285,"games",{"id":238,"name":239,"points":240,"category":241},"24294397","Muse",266,"productivity",false,"v2",{"id":245,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":242,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":28,"s":29,"top":18,"kw":246,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":32,"strip":247,"url":9,"mix":248,"praise":64,"objection":77,"sub":21},24350217,[24,25,21,26,27],"10010110010511015031130",[31,32,31,33],1794036595479]