[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":478},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-27379310":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":27,"sentiment":28,"stance_mix":29,"scored_comments":34,"aspects":35,"strip":46,"post_text":48,"what":49,"said":90,"maker_in_thread":209,"shape":218,"grid":222,"attempts":440,"same_week":441,"maker_shows":39,"maker_hidden":470,"reader_version":471,"card":472},"27379310","Vistimo Quotes","Monte Carlo simulation for predicting project timelines","title","Show HN: Monte Carlo simulation for predicting project timelines","https:\u002F\u002Fquotes.vistimo.com","quotes.vistimo.com","diiq",1622716800,2021,136,86,376,2533,15,"notable","web_saas","project estimation","web_app",[24,25,21,26],"monte carlo","project timeline","evidence based scheduling","curious",-0.042,{"positive":30,"neutral":31,"mixed":32,"critical":33},7,24,3,13,47,{"idea":36,"performance":38,"execution":41,"docs":44,"design":45},{"positive":32,"critical":37},4,{"positive":39,"critical":40},1,0,{"positive":42,"critical":43},2,6,{"positive":40,"critical":32},{"positive":40,"critical":40},[32,32,40,32,40,32,32,32,47,39,47,40,32,39,39,32,32,47,32,47,32,32,40,39,40,32,32,32,40,32,47,39,32,39,39,39,39,32,32,32],5,null,{"problem":50,"audience":60,"pricing":48,"motivation":69,"time_to_build":48,"stack":74,"openness":87,"stage":88,"team_size":89},{"value":51,"source":52,"evidence":53},"Predicting project timelines and quotes under uncertainty","maker",[54,57],{"id":55,"by":11,"text":56},"27382252","You're right! Ensemble forecasting is great! Vistimo proper (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.vistimo.com) does both -- it gets individual high\u002Flow estimates from multiple people, and creates a…",{"id":58,"by":11,"text":59},"27385179","About 5 years ago, when I first started using this method, I gave a talk about it that went into detail about how to do it, and the benefits. I did a live demo showing how well…",{"value":61,"source":52,"evidence":62},"Consultants and teams needing rapid estimates without tool sign-up",[63,66],{"id":64,"by":11,"text":65},"27388319","I'm a consultant, and it happens that hardly any of my clients use Jira. So this is the result of scratching my itch (and the itch of people who already give me money) first, and…",{"id":67,"by":11,"text":68},"27389885","It's been my experience that most business needs involving estimates can't wait until the job is partway done. \"Can we afford this\" and \"should we do this now\" really need some…",{"value":70,"source":52,"evidence":71},"Maker is a consultant who needed better estimates for client work",[72,73],{"id":64,"by":11,"text":65},{"id":58,"by":11,"text":59},[75,81],{"value":76,"source":52,"evidence":77},"Redis",[78],{"id":79,"by":11,"text":80},"27386410","Yep, it's down. Y'all have just about tipped over my baby redis instance with a few thousand project simulations all at once. Should be back as soon as I scale 'er up.",{"value":82,"source":52,"evidence":83},"WebSockets",[84],{"id":85,"by":11,"text":86},"27384865","Once you enter tasks, and estimate at least one, you should see a link to view your \"Projections\". (Fetching those projections uses websockets, so you may need to refresh if…","unknown","launched","solo",{"praise":91,"objections":111,"requests":142,"questions":167,"alternatives":182},[92,104],{"value":93,"source":94,"evidence":95},"Good idea and simple, clean web page","commenter",[96,100],{"id":97,"by":98,"text":99},"27382147","Grustaf","Interesting idea, and very nice and simple web page! I have no idea if people are willing to pay for it, but good on you for making an attempt. A question though, isn't Monte…",{"id":101,"by":102,"text":103},"27385137","SkyMarshal","I really like this idea and wish all project management tools included it by default. Fwiw Fogbugz has been using it for over a decade, called Evidence Based Scheduling: -…",{"value":105,"source":94,"evidence":106},"Evidence-based forecasting removes story point estimating",[107],{"id":108,"by":109,"text":110},"27382421","dglass","I've used this technique before at an employer. I thought it was crazy at first but I came to really like it. No more story points and estimating the size of tickets. The monte…",[112,127,134],{"value":113,"source":94,"evidence":114},"Lacks import from Jira or other trackers, so re-entering tasks is tedious",[115,119,123],{"id":116,"by":117,"text":118},"27382298","bberenberg","Feels like a good idea, but the hard part here is the data input. Do you have any plans to import from Jira or something like it? Ideally bi-directional sync after a given…",{"id":120,"by":121,"text":122},"27383874","nwsm","The idea is interesting, but it appears to involve using Vistimo's UI to break down projects and tasks. It feels incredibly waterfally, and also will involve re-entering mass…",{"id":124,"by":125,"text":126},"27382670","breakfastduck","I thought this would be brilliant, so I clicked 'try it out' only to get through and be asked to manually write in the tasks. I have a huge backlog already in an external tool. I…",{"value":128,"source":94,"evidence":129},"Black box with no stated modeling assumptions or validation",[130],{"id":131,"by":132,"text":133},"27385937","pton-throw","The UI is slick, but why should I trust this black box? The \"how does it work\" section doesn't even mention * modeling assumptions * training data (if any) * validation (if any)…",{"value":135,"source":94,"evidence":136},"Waterfall-like workflow and no task hierarchy like milestones",[137,138],{"id":120,"by":121,"text":122},{"id":139,"by":140,"text":141},"27383632","alex_c","I like this! I would consider using it for some of our projects. Biggest issue I have is with the task list, for any reasonably complicated project we would at least need ability…",[143,152,163],{"value":144,"source":94,"evidence":145},"Jira integration",[146,147,151],{"id":116,"by":117,"text":118},{"id":148,"by":149,"text":150},"27387947","danielmarkbruce","Out of interest, why not make this a jira app and sell it in the atlassian marketplace? You get low cost distribution, the tool would fit right into the existing product everyone…",{"id":139,"by":140,"text":141},{"value":153,"source":94,"evidence":154},"Sample project or report to view",[155,159],{"id":156,"by":157,"text":158},"27382725","enlightens","Very interesting! Is there a sample report \u002F projection available to view? I'd like to show this to a few coworkers without having to spend time loading in my own sample data",{"id":160,"by":161,"text":162},"27383733","skellystudios","You should 100% have a sample tool for people to play with on this homepage.",{"value":164,"source":94,"evidence":165},"Milestones or feature grouping for tasks",[166],{"id":139,"by":140,"text":141},[168,175],{"value":169,"source":94,"evidence":170},"How the uncertainties are expressed in the model",[171],{"id":172,"by":173,"text":174},"27381863","virgil_disgr4ce","I'd like to see some kind of explanation of how exactly you \"express the various uncertainties\" of the project. I'm not going to click the CTA until I understand what I'd…",{"value":176,"source":94,"evidence":177},"How to evaluate whether the estimates were accurate",[178],{"id":179,"by":180,"text":181},"27385045","a_zaydak","The idea seems simple enough and the math to do these kinds of predictions is fairly straight forward unless there is some secret sauce under the hood that isn't obvious. I guess…",[183,187,195,202],{"value":184,"source":52,"evidence":185},"Vistimo full project management tool",[186],{"id":55,"by":11,"text":56},{"value":188,"source":94,"evidence":189},"Evidence Based Scheduling in FogBugz",[190,194],{"id":191,"by":192,"text":193},"27382286","orlandohill","Joel Spolsky described this technique, calling it Evidence Based Scheduling. I'm surprised that it didn't become more popular.…",{"id":101,"by":102,"text":103},{"value":196,"source":94,"evidence":197},"LiquidPlanner",[198],{"id":199,"by":200,"text":201},"27387507","weeblewobble","There's a product called LiquidPlanner built around this idea thats been around for years. A friend used to work there but I have no other affiliation. Looks like they're still…",{"value":203,"source":94,"evidence":204},"Actionable Agile",[205],{"id":206,"by":207,"text":208},"27388650","impute","Neat idea. This looks somewhat similar to Actionable Agile except it's up front rather than relying on ticket cycle time. Are you able to share the task list so that each project…",{"comments":31,"answered":30,"key":210},[211,212,215],{"id":55,"text":56},{"id":213,"text":214},"27384705","Not at the moment. This is the dream, but it's statistically much harder than it seems! For each task you have one distribution, and one sample. What's the likelihood that sample…",{"id":216,"text":217},"27382392","I think Steve McConnell was calling for statistical modelling even earlier than that. Definitely not a new idea! I'm working on the assumption that it hasn't caught on because…",{"commenters":219,"max_depth":47,"maker_replies":31,"first_comment_mins":220,"lifespan_hours":221},45,227,35,[223,227,228,231,233,237,241,244,246,249,253,254,255,258,261,264,268,270,273,275,276,279,282,284,286,289,291,294,296,300,303,305,309,311,313,315,317,319,322,324,325,328,331,333,335,339,340,342,345,347,349,351,354,357,359,361,363,366,368,370,371,373,375,379,381,386,388,390,394,395,399,401,402,404,406,408,411,413,415,417,419,423,427,430,434,438],[224,40,32,225,226,40],"27382164","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","colincooke",[55,40,40,225,11,39],[229,40,32,225,230,40],"27384389","adam",[213,40,40,232,11,39],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[234,40,40,235,236,40],"27383638","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","shakezula",[238,40,40,239,240,40],"27384296","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","beckingz",[242,40,32,225,243,40],"27385055","SMAAART",[245,40,32,225,98,40],"27385827",[247,40,40,235,248,40],"27399497","quickthrower2",[250,40,40,251,252,40],"27388023","other\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","Exuma",[191,39,32,225,192,40],[216,39,40,251,11,39],[256,39,40,251,257,40],"27383637","FourthProtocol",[259,39,32,225,260,40],"27383418","c17r",[262,39,40,251,263,40],"27386937","commandlinefan",[265,42,32,266,267,40],"27386292","project\u002Fmixed\u002Fidea","poodler",[79,42,40,269,11,39],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fperformance",[271,42,47,272,267,40],"27386419","project\u002Fpositive\u002Fperformance",[274,42,40,269,11,39],"27386621",[116,32,32,232,117,40],[277,32,39,278,125,40],"27395280","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fexecution",[280,37,40,251,281,40],"27385302","jkaptur",[101,47,47,283,102,40],"project\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[285,47,40,225,11,39],"27385238",[287,47,40,251,288,40],"27386512","BlueTemplar",[160,43,32,290,161,40],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs",[292,43,32,290,293,40],"27384109","nscalf",[295,43,32,290,121,40],"27384132",[297,43,39,298,299,40],"27385180","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fdocs","Raidion",[301,43,39,298,302,40],"27393351","journey_16162",[304,43,39,278,125,40],"27395261",[306,30,39,307,308,40],"27383229","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea","asdf_snar",[310,30,40,225,11,39],"27384194",[312,30,32,225,308,40],"27384347",[314,30,40,225,11,39],"27384724",[316,30,32,266,308,40],"27385039",[156,318,32,290,157,40],8,[108,320,47,321,109,40],9,"project\u002Fpositive\u002Fexecution",[179,323,32,225,180,40],10,[58,323,40,225,11,39],[326,323,47,327,180,40],"27385243","maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fexecution",[329,323,40,330,11,39],"27385459","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign",[332,323,40,251,98,40],"27391812",[199,334,39,307,200,40],11,[336,337,47,283,338,40],"27382651",12,"darepublic",[148,33,32,232,149,40],[64,33,40,341,11,39],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[343,33,40,251,344,40],"27388636","Aeolun",[346,33,40,239,149,40],"27389775",[120,348,39,278,121,40],14,[139,18,32,350,140,40],"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fdesign",[352,18,40,353,11,39],"27384524","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign",[355,356,40,251,248,40],"27399530",16,[97,358,32,225,98,40],17,[360,358,40,225,11,39],"27382330",[362,358,32,225,98,40],"27382491",[364,358,32,225,365,40],"27382833","iainmerrick",[367,358,40,225,11,39],"27384628",[206,369,32,232,207,40],18,[67,369,40,232,11,39],[372,369,40,235,207,40],"27394432",[374,369,40,225,11,39],"27397365",[376,377,32,353,378,40],"27382243",19,"ballmerspeak",[380,377,40,353,11,39],"27382267",[382,383,47,384,385,40],"27383752",20,"maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fnone","vladsanchez",[172,387,32,225,173,40],21,[389,387,40,290,11,39],"27382010",[391,392,39,278,393,40],"27384764",22,"tschottdorf",[85,392,40,232,11,39],[396,397,32,290,398,40],"27383858",23,"mclouts91",[400,397,40,290,11,39],"27384202",[131,31,39,307,132,40],[403,31,40,225,11,39],"27386043",[405,31,39,298,132,40],"27386165",[407,31,40,239,344,40],"27388816",[409,31,40,410,132,40],"27389551","commenter\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea",[124,412,39,278,125,40],25,[414,412,40,232,11,39],"27384801",[416,412,39,278,125,40],"27395133",[418,412,40,232,11,39],"27397327",[420,421,32,341,422,40],"27384029",26,"db48x",[424,425,32,225,426,40],"27385340",27,"poxwole",[428,429,32,232,344,40],"27388822",28,[431,432,47,283,433,40],"27382033",29,"ThouYS",[435,436,39,307,437,40],"27381992",30,"awillen",[439,436,40,283,11,39],"27382053",[],[442,446,451,456,461,466],{"id":443,"name":444,"points":445,"category":20},"27421408","ToolJet",429,{"id":447,"name":448,"points":449,"category":450},"27414677","SectorTradingAlgorithm",249,"finance_crypto",{"id":452,"name":453,"points":454,"category":455},"27434254","nettu-meet",154,"learning_science",{"id":457,"name":458,"points":459,"category":460},"27408326","Rustpad",143,"dev_tools",{"id":462,"name":463,"points":464,"category":465},"27384949","Spot",125,"productivity",{"id":467,"name":468,"points":469,"category":460},"27412445","Prestige",117,false,"v2",{"id":473,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":470,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":27,"s":474,"top":18,"kw":475,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":40,"strip":476,"url":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