[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":709},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-43690289":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":27,"sentiment":28,"stance_mix":29,"scored_comments":34,"aspects":35,"strip":46,"post_text":48,"what":49,"said":81,"maker_in_thread":196,"shape":206,"grid":210,"attempts":665,"same_week":671,"maker_shows":44,"maker_hidden":701,"reader_version":702,"card":703},"43690289","Unsure Calculator","back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator","title","Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator","https:\u002F\u002Ffiliph.github.io\u002Funsure\u002F","filiph.github.io","filiph",1744705379,2025,930,162,19,3837,1,"legend","dev_tools","probabilistic calculator","web_app",[21,24,25,26],"monte carlo","uncertainty ranges","fermi estimation","curious",0.158,{"positive":30,"neutral":31,"mixed":32,"critical":33},22,44,4,11,81,{"idea":36,"execution":39,"design":42,"performance":43,"docs":45},{"positive":37,"critical":38},13,3,{"positive":40,"critical":41},0,6,{"positive":32,"critical":40},{"positive":40,"critical":44},2,{"positive":40,"critical":40},[38,40,40,40,40,38,47,32,32,40,38,40,40,47,44,32,32,38,38,18,18,18,47,18,47,47,32,18,47,38,32,38,38,47,47,18,38,38,38,47],5,null,{"problem":48,"audience":50,"pricing":48,"motivation":48,"time_to_build":48,"stack":62,"openness":78,"stage":79,"team_size":80},{"value":51,"source":52,"evidence":53},"People doing rough estimates, statistics learners, and analysts","inferred",[54,58],{"id":55,"by":56,"text":57},"43699728","roughly","I like this! In the grand HN tradition of being triggered by a word in the post and going off on a not-quite-but-basically-totally-tangential rant: There’s (at least) three areas…",{"id":59,"by":60,"text":61},"43703086","elia_42","Interesting. I like the notation and the histogram that comes out with the output. I also like the practical examples you gave (e.g. the application of the calculator to business…",[63,71],{"value":64,"source":65,"evidence":66},"Dart","commenter",[67],{"id":68,"by":69,"text":70},"43697461","djoldman","I perused the codebase but I'm unfamiliar with dart: https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Ffiliph\u002Funsure\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Flib\u002Fsrc\u002Fcalculation.dart I assume this is a montecarlo approach? (Not to start a…",{"value":72,"source":73,"evidence":74},"JavaScript","maker",[75],{"id":76,"by":11,"text":77},"43703703","It's all computed in the browser so yeah, it's JavaScript. Still, 8 seconds is a lot -- I was targeting sub-second computation times (which I find alright).","open_source","launched","unknown",{"praise":82,"objections":102,"requests":126,"questions":145,"alternatives":158},[83,91],{"value":84,"source":65,"evidence":85},"Useful tool for building statistical intuition",[86,90],{"id":87,"by":88,"text":89},"43697729","throwanem","I love this! As a tool for helping folks with a good base in arithmetic develop statistical intuition, I can't think offhand of what I've seen that's better.",{"id":55,"by":56,"text":57},{"value":92,"source":65,"evidence":93},"Clean, polished UI and histogram output",[94,98],{"id":95,"by":96,"text":97},"43699696","alex-moon","> The UI is ugly, to say the least. I actually quite like it. Really clean, easy to see all the important elements. Lovely clear legible monospace serif font.",{"id":99,"by":100,"text":101},"43699516","gregschlom","The ASCII art (well technically ANSI art) histogram is neat. Cool hack to get something done quickly. I'd have spent 5x the time trying various chart libraries and giving up.",[103,118],{"value":104,"source":65,"evidence":105},"Negative results from positive inputs and wide ranges for division by zero-spanning ranges",[106,110,114],{"id":107,"by":108,"text":109},"43699129","ttoinou","Would be nice to retransform the output into an interval \u002F gaussian distribution ``` Note: If you're curious why there is a negative number (-5) in the histogram, that's just an…",{"id":111,"by":112,"text":113},"43703135","ralferoo","On the whole it seems like a nice idea, but there's a couple of weird things, such as: > Note: If you're curious why there is a negative number (-5) in the histogram, that's just…",{"id":115,"by":116,"text":117},"43702204","NotAnOtter","This is super cool. It seems to break for ranges including 0 though 100 \u002F -1~1 = -3550~3500 I think the most correct answer here is -inf~inf",{"value":119,"source":65,"evidence":120},"Slow in the browser",[121,125],{"id":122,"by":123,"text":124},"43700455","Aachen","https:\u002F\u002Fqalculate.github.io can do this also for as long as I've used it (only a couple years to be fair). I've got it on my phone, my laptop, even my server with apt install…",{"id":76,"by":11,"text":77},[127,138],{"value":128,"source":65,"evidence":129},"Support for specifying probability distributions",[130,134],{"id":131,"by":132,"text":133},"43697523","thih9","Feature request: allow specifying the probability distribution. E.g.: ‘~’: normal, ‘_’: uniform, etc.",{"id":135,"by":136,"text":137},"43699830","vortico","Cool! Some random requests to consider: Could the range x~y be uniform instead of 2 std dev normal (95.4%ile)? Sometimes the range of quantities is known. 95%ile is probably fine…",{"value":139,"source":65,"evidence":140},"Support for non-scalar (correlated) multiplication of repeated ranges",[141],{"id":142,"by":143,"text":144},"43707038","peeters","Is there a way to do non-scalar multiplication? E.g if I want to say \"what is the sum of three dice rolls\" (ignoring the fact that that's not a normal distro) I want to do 1~6 *…",[146,154],{"value":147,"source":65,"evidence":148},"Why ranges are treated as normal rather than uniform distributions",[149,153],{"id":150,"by":151,"text":152},"43699428","omoikane","If I am reading this right, a range is expressed as a distance between the minimum and maximum values, and in the Monte Carlo part a number is generated from a uniform…",{"id":135,"by":136,"text":137},{"value":155,"source":65,"evidence":156},"Whether 95% confidence interpretation is correct",[157],{"id":111,"by":112,"text":113},[159,174,185,189],{"value":160,"source":65,"evidence":161},"Guesstimate",[162,166,170],{"id":163,"by":164,"text":165},"43703735","trieloff","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.getguesstimate.com\u002F is this, as a spreadsheet",{"id":167,"by":168,"text":169},"43697511","timothylaurent","This reminds me of https:\u002F\u002Fwww.getguesstimate.com\u002F , a probabilistic spreadsheet.",{"id":171,"by":172,"text":173},"43700958","lorenzowood","See also Guesstimate https:\u002F\u002Fgetguesstimate.com. Strengths include treating label and data as a unit, a space for examining the reasoning for a result, and the ability to replace…",{"value":175,"source":65,"evidence":176},"Squiggle",[177,181],{"id":178,"by":179,"text":180},"43699669","NunoSempere","I have written similar tools - for command line, fermi: https:\u002F\u002Fgit.nunosempere.com\u002FNunoSempere\u002Ffermi - for android, a distribution calculator:…",{"id":182,"by":183,"text":184},"43697819","Recursing","The authors of Guesstimate are now working on https:\u002F\u002Fwww.squiggle-language.com\u002F Someone also turned it into the https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Frethinkpriorities\u002Fsquigglepy python library",{"value":186,"source":65,"evidence":187},"Qalculate",[188],{"id":122,"by":123,"text":124},{"value":190,"source":65,"evidence":191},"NIST uncertainty calculator",[192],{"id":193,"by":194,"text":195},"43699900","nritchie","Here (https:\u002F\u002Funcertainty.nist.gov\u002F) is another similar Monte Carlo-style calculator designed by the statisticians at NIST. It is intended for propagating uncertainties in…",{"comments":197,"answered":18,"key":198},7,[199,202,203],{"id":200,"text":201},"43703746","I think I was looking at this and several other similar calculators when creating the linked tool. This is what I mean when I say \"you'll want to use something more…",{"id":76,"text":77},{"id":204,"text":205},"43703772","Nice! Are you using your python script often? The reason I'm asking: unsure also has a CLI version (which is leaps and bounds faster and in some ways easier to use) but I rarely…",{"commenters":207,"max_depth":41,"maker_replies":197,"first_comment_mins":208,"lifespan_hours":209},103,196,156,[211,213,217,220,224,228,231,234,237,240,242,244,247,249,252,255,258,262,264,266,268,271,273,276,279,281,283,285,288,292,296,299,301,304,307,309,312,316,318,319,321,323,325,329,331,333,337,340,343,346,349,353,355,357,359,362,365,366,367,369,372,374,378,381,384,387,389,393,395,397,399,402,405,407,410,413,414,416,420,423,427,429,432,434,437,440,444,446,450,453,455,458,462,463,465,467,469,471,473,476,478,481,483,484,486,488,490,493,496,499,502,505,507,509,511,515,519,523,525,529,534,537,539,543,547,550,554,556,560,562,565,570,574,578,580,584,586,588,592,596,600,601,604,606,609,613,616,620,622,624,626,629,633,636,641,643,646,649,651,653,657,661],[55,40,38,212,56,40],"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fidea",[214,40,40,215,216,40],"43699834","other\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","youainti",[218,40,40,215,219,40],"43705562","ninalanyon",[221,40,40,222,223,40],"43699943","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","btilly",[225,40,40,226,227,40],"43700587","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","Nevermark",[229,40,40,226,230,40],"43700928","yen223",[232,40,40,226,233,40],"43701593","kqr",[235,40,40,226,236,40],"43702346","dotaenjoyer",[238,40,40,239,233,40],"43713181","commenter\u002Fcritical\u002Fnone",[241,40,40,226,227,40],"43713198",[243,40,40,222,143,40],"43705638",[245,40,40,222,246,40],"43706288","duckmysick",[248,40,40,222,143,40],"43706835",[250,40,40,215,251,40],"43706862","throwup238",[253,40,40,226,254,40],"43707724","baq",[256,40,40,226,257,40],"43706834","MichaelDickens",[259,40,40,260,261,40],"43700742","other\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","pertdist",[263,40,40,260,254,40],"43702776",[265,40,40,215,233,40],"43703208",[267,40,40,239,254,40],"43703907",[269,40,38,212,270,40],"43701353","jrowen",[272,40,40,222,233,40],"43701453",[274,40,40,226,275,40],"43702160","pests",[277,40,40,226,278,40],"43702556","bigfudge",[280,40,40,226,233,40],"43703186",[282,40,40,226,275,40],"43709516",[284,40,40,222,270,40],"43707377",[286,40,47,287,56,40],"43707060","project\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[289,40,47,290,291,40],"43703386","project\u002Fpositive\u002Fnone","larodi",[293,40,38,294,295,40],"43704419","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","jbjbjbjb",[297,40,38,294,298,40],"43704499","rssoconnor",[300,40,40,222,233,40],"43705164",[302,40,38,294,303,40],"43705702","tgv",[305,40,38,294,306,40],"43706305","JKCalhoun",[308,40,40,222,56,40],"43709794",[310,40,47,287,311,40],"43706521","gamerDude",[313,40,40,314,315,40],"43708801","commenter\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea","dawnofdusk",[317,40,40,222,56,40],"43709644",[178,18,40,215,179,40],[320,18,40,215,179,40],"43699684",[322,18,40,215,179,40],"43699800",[324,18,40,215,233,40],"43701651",[326,18,38,327,328,40],"43699970","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution","antman",[330,18,38,327,179,40],"43699996",[332,18,40,215,179,40],"43700083",[334,18,40,335,336,40],"43706120","other\u002Fcritical\u002Fpricing","joshlemer",[338,18,40,339,179,40],"43707926","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fpricing",[341,18,40,215,342,40],"43756147","dariosalvi78",[344,18,40,215,345,40],"43700801","notpushkin",[347,44,40,215,348,40],"43699839","OisinMoran",[350,44,40,351,352,40],"43700286","other\u002Fpositive\u002Fnone","drewvlaz",[354,44,40,215,254,40],"43704154",[356,38,40,215,233,40],"43701422",[99,32,47,358,100,40],"project\u002Fpositive\u002Fdesign",[360,32,47,358,361,40],"43699746","Retr0id",[363,32,40,215,364,40],"43702226","smartmic",[163,47,40,215,164,40],[142,41,38,327,143,40],[107,197,18,368,108,40],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fexecution",[370,197,38,327,371,40],"43699485","hatthew",[373,197,40,226,108,40],"43702928",[375,376,47,287,377,40],"43699084",8,"krick",[379,376,38,380,179,40],"43700034","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[382,376,38,380,383,40],"43710885","hyperbolablabla",[385,376,47,287,386,40],"43714097","PennRobotics",[131,388,38,294,132,40],9,[390,388,38,391,392,40],"43700430","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign","pyfon",[394,388,40,226,132,40],"43702285",[396,388,38,391,303,40],"43703484",[68,398,38,327,69,40],10,[400,398,38,327,401,40],"43697503","kccqzy",[403,398,38,327,404,40],"43698051","porridgeraisin",[406,398,38,327,401,40],"43698090",[408,398,38,327,409,40],"43698880","constantcrying",[411,398,38,327,412,40],"43699429","hawthorns",[193,33,38,294,194,40],[200,33,40,415,11,18],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[417,418,40,215,419,40],"43697550",12,"pvg",[421,37,38,380,422,40],"43703720","henryaj",[424,425,18,368,426,40],"43699471",14,"marcodiego",[428,425,40,226,179,40],"43700060",[430,425,38,327,431,40],"43700407","SamBam",[433,425,40,226,392,40],"43700472",[435,425,18,368,436,40],"43701026","lswainemoore",[438,425,18,368,439,40],"43709493","blackbear_",[441,425,18,442,443,40],"43701224","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea","etbebl",[445,425,18,368,439,40],"43709431",[447,448,18,442,449,40],"43702561",15,"usgroup",[122,451,18,452,123,40],16,"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fperformance",[76,451,40,454,11,18],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fperformance",[456,451,47,287,457,40],"43704671","internetter",[459,460,47,461,401,40],"43697572",17,"maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[204,460,40,415,11,18],[464,460,40,226,401,40],"43705601",[111,466,18,442,112,40],18,[468,466,40,226,233,40],"43703226",[470,466,40,226,348,40],"43703980",[472,466,40,226,233,40],"43704880",[474,466,40,226,475,40],"43703516","perlgeek",[477,466,40,226,409,40],"43704185",[479,16,47,287,480,40],"43701641","danpalmer",[167,482,40,215,168,40],20,[182,482,40,215,183,40],[485,482,40,415,11,18],"43703833",[487,482,47,287,254,40],"43697827",[150,489,38,327,151,40],21,[491,489,38,492,371,40],"43699469","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs",[494,489,40,495,11,18],"43703797","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs",[497,30,47,287,498,40],"43701638","your_challenger",[500,501,18,452,409,40],"43698800",23,[503,501,40,226,504,40],"43699387","sixo",[506,501,40,226,409,40],"43699408",[508,501,40,226,11,18],"43703813",[510,501,40,226,409,40],"43703877",[512,513,47,287,514,40],"43702819",24,"dmos62",[516,517,38,391,518,40],"43702916",25,"97-109-107",[520,521,40,215,522,40],"43699782",26,"chris_wot",[135,524,38,294,136,40],27,[526,527,38,391,528,40],"43703300",28,"dejongh",[530,531,38,532,533,40],"43700614",29,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fperformance","explosion-s",[535,531,40,536,443,40],"43701169","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[59,538,47,358,60,40],30,[540,541,38,294,542,40],"43701979",31,"chacha21",[544,545,38,327,546,40],"43704186",32,"spzzz",[548,545,40,226,549,40],"43705806","wongarsu",[551,552,38,294,553,40],"43698358",33,"alexmolas",[555,552,38,294,409,40],"43698945",[557,558,38,327,559,40],"43703091",34,"cluckindan",[561,558,40,226,233,40],"43703245",[563,558,40,226,564,40],"43703247","burning_hamster",[566,567,38,568,569,40],"43701614",35,"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fdesign","nkron",[571,572,38,380,573,40],"43703501",36,"thomascountz",[575,576,38,294,577,40],"43703631",37,"godDLL",[579,576,38,294,409,40],"43704203",[581,582,38,532,583,40],"43700172",38,"ashu1461",[87,585,47,287,88,40],39,[95,587,47,358,96,40],40,[589,590,47,287,591,40],"43709332",41,"frugalmail",[593,594,47,290,595,40],"43709889",42,"bionhoward",[597,598,47,287,599,40],"43697546",43,"rao-v",[171,31,38,294,172,40],[602,31,40,226,603,40],"43701130","montag",[115,605,18,368,116,40],45,[607,605,40,608,11,18],"43703933","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[610,611,38,294,612,40],"43703297",46,"ThouYS",[614,615,38,294,449,40],"43703030",47,[617,618,38,294,619,40],"43698488",48,"croisillon",[621,618,40,226,409,40],"43698922",[623,618,40,226,619,40],"43709637",[625,618,40,226,409,40],"43717153",[627,618,40,226,628,40],"43699000","perching_aix",[630,631,38,294,632,40],"43698805",49,"vessenes",[634,631,38,492,635,40],"43698958","re",[637,638,38,639,640,40],"43691384",50,"project\u002Fmixed\u002Fexecution","rogueptr",[642,638,40,226,132,40],"43697453",[644,638,38,492,645,40],"43697549","BrandoElFollito",[647,638,40,226,648,40],"43699047","notfed",[650,638,40,226,88,40],"43699456",[652,638,40,226,645,40],"43702031",[654,655,47,290,656,40],"43702348",51,"shubhamintech",[658,659,47,290,660,40],"43702594",52,"po1nt",[662,663,47,290,664,40],"43701193",53,"BOOSTERHIDROGEN",[666,670],{"id":667,"t":668,"points":669,"comments":425},"22630600",1584645018,58,{"id":4,"t":12,"points":14,"comments":15},[672,677,682,687,692,696],{"id":673,"name":674,"points":675,"category":676},"43675248","SignalBloom",292,"finance_crypto",{"id":678,"name":679,"points":680,"category":681},"43667061","memEx",194,"productivity",{"id":683,"name":684,"points":685,"category":686},"43652968","Chonky",169,"ai",{"id":688,"name":689,"points":690,"category":691},"43677909","Infocom Unix Z-Machine (pez)",157,"languages",{"id":693,"name":694,"points":695,"category":691},"43682547","protobuf-ts-types",138,{"id":697,"name":698,"points":699,"category":700},"43689178","MCP-Shield",134,"security_privacy",false,"v2",{"id":704,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":701,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":27,"s":705,"top":18,"kw":706,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":44,"strip":707,"url":9,"mix":708,"praise":84,"objection":104,"sub":21},43690289,0.16,[21,24,25,26],"3000035440300524433111515541534335513335",[30,31,32,33],1794036672938]