[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":567},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-49020545":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":29,"sentiment":30,"stance_mix":31,"scored_comments":35,"aspects":36,"strip":45,"post_text":46,"what":47,"said":71,"maker_in_thread":180,"shape":193,"grid":197,"attempts":528,"same_week":529,"maker_shows":38,"maker_hidden":559,"reader_version":560,"card":561},"49020545","Global Oil Network","I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data","title","Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data","https:\u002F\u002Fglobaloilnetwork.staffinganalytics.io\u002F","globaloilnetwork.staffinganalytics.io","eliotho",1784809881,2026,244,128,202,4366,5,"notable","data","oil supply network simulation","web_app",[24,25,26,27,28],"strait of hormuz","oil reserves simulation","oil supply chain","stress testing","oil price shock","curious",-0.088,{"positive":18,"neutral":32,"mixed":33,"critical":34},18,0,8,31,{"idea":37,"performance":40,"design":41,"execution":42,"docs":44},{"positive":38,"critical":39},1,4,{"positive":33,"critical":38},{"positive":38,"critical":33},{"positive":33,"critical":43},3,{"positive":33,"critical":33},[43,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,33,43,38,18,38,18,38,38,33,33,43,33,33,33,33,43,43,18,18,38,43,18,43,33,38],null,{"problem":48,"audience":46,"pricing":46,"motivation":55,"time_to_build":46,"stack":59,"openness":68,"stage":69,"team_size":70},{"value":49,"source":50,"evidence":51},"Shows how a closure of a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz could deplete national oil reserves and spike prices","maker",[52],{"id":53,"by":11,"text":54},"49020642","Author here. What started as a numerical experiment for a paper turned out to be something else. The model: I take UN Comtrade data for crude trade flows, build an oil flow…",{"value":56,"source":50,"evidence":57},"Started as a numerical experiment for a paper",[58],{"id":53,"by":11,"text":54},[60,64],{"value":61,"source":50,"evidence":62},"globe.gl frontend",[63],{"id":53,"by":11,"text":54},{"value":65,"source":50,"evidence":66},"Flask backend (Python)",[67],{"id":53,"by":11,"text":54},"unknown","launched","solo",{"praise":72,"objections":96,"requests":141,"questions":160,"alternatives":179},[73,89],{"value":74,"source":75,"evidence":76},"Interesting model and useful as a stress-testing tool","commenter",[77,81,85],{"id":78,"by":79,"text":80},"49046506","larsien","This is really interesting. Investment firms could incorporate this kind of simulation into their products.",{"id":82,"by":83,"text":84},"49042743","runlaszlorun","Very cool. I'll def check this out more later on.",{"id":86,"by":87,"text":88},"49048151","CzaxTanmay","It's good",{"value":90,"source":75,"evidence":91},"Customizable parameters like demand elasticity are a good feature",[92],{"id":93,"by":94,"text":95},"49043621","kccqzy","Nice that you allowed readers to customize the parameters! I personally thought the demand demand elasticity was too low and I was able to adjust it.",[97,112,127,134],{"value":98,"source":75,"evidence":99},"Model omits sanctioned and unreported trade such as Iran and China flows",[100,104,108],{"id":101,"by":102,"text":103},"49042287","kingjimmy","Are emergency stockpiles calculated correctly? China should not be the first to be exposed.",{"id":105,"by":106,"text":107},"49047651","NooneAtAll3","did you model rapid decrease of oil import by China?",{"id":109,"by":110,"text":111},"49054977","tdu01","Nice. How does this stand up against backtesting with recent data? Also, i thought China's emergency stockpile is about 1.4b barrels or close 5 months of domestic consumption,…",{"value":113,"source":75,"evidence":114},"Exporter reserves deplete even at 100% capacity retained, seems wrong",[115,119,123],{"id":116,"by":117,"text":118},"49042828","Normal_gaussian","I don't know if I'm doing something wrong, but if I set Capacity Retained to 100% then no matter what I set the other values to a bunch of countries deplete their reserves. This…",{"id":120,"by":121,"text":122},"49044988","bagels","Why do reserves deplete with 100% of the strait open?",{"id":124,"by":125,"text":126},"49045828","a3w","Something seems to be wrong with the simulation: some countries run on reserves, and out of them, even with 100 % delivery. OP blames \"Market elasticity parameters\" for that, but…",{"value":128,"source":75,"evidence":129},"Strait is already closed for months, so the model is outdated",[130],{"id":131,"by":132,"text":133},"49042108","refulgentis","I really do appreciate the effort but it’s somewhat falsified given it’s been closed for months. Cool exercise, just, not much there there between a model we know is wrong and a…",{"value":135,"source":75,"evidence":136},"Omits Saudi and UAE bypass pipelines in early analysis",[137],{"id":138,"by":139,"text":140},"49046480","molticrystal","Maybe I missed it looking over the paper, or maybe they are implicit, but are you taking into account Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) , I believe it does…",[142,149,156],{"value":143,"source":75,"evidence":144},"Add India as a shock target",[145],{"id":146,"by":147,"text":148},"49044514","wtmt","OP, please add India as a shock target option if possible. It imports close to 80+% of its crude oil and gas requirements and is highly vulnerable to oil flow shocks.",{"value":150,"source":75,"evidence":151},"Add a playback speed control, especially on mobile",[152],{"id":153,"by":154,"text":155},"49042971","entropie","Good stuff. Maybe you can make a playback speed option for the simulation\u002Fplay button? I fail to follow up.",{"value":157,"source":75,"evidence":158},"Backtest against recent data",[159],{"id":109,"by":110,"text":111},[161,168,175],{"value":162,"source":75,"evidence":163},"How much of the paper was written with AI",[164],{"id":165,"by":166,"text":167},"49046826","mhh__","How much of the paper was written with AI?",{"value":169,"source":75,"evidence":170},"What modelling approach is used",[171],{"id":172,"by":173,"text":174},"49042309","sebzuddas","What modelling approach are you using, and where can I learn more about it? Really cool, btw.",{"value":176,"source":75,"evidence":177},"Why do reserves deplete with 100% of the strait open",[178],{"id":120,"by":121,"text":122},[],{"comments":181,"answered":182,"key":183},27,13,[184,187,190],{"id":185,"text":186},"49043971","This is an interesting insight, as usable reserves \u003C reported reserves the clocks in the model are optimistic",{"id":188,"text":189},"49042268","and the interesting thing is that the common factor is that all these crises (oil, financial, gas) spread silently until a node collapses and there is a domino effect over the…",{"id":191,"text":192},"49047552","This pipeline predates the data but its oil is routed to Bab-el-Mandeb which is in the network. 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