[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":430},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-6516279":3},{"id":4,"name":5,"line":6,"line_source":7,"title":8,"url":9,"domain":10,"maker":11,"posted_at":12,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rank_in_year":16,"shown_in_year":17,"top":18,"tier":19,"category":20,"subcategory":21,"format":22,"keywords":23,"reception":29,"sentiment":30,"stance_mix":31,"scored_comments":36,"aspects":37,"strip":45,"post_text":47,"what":48,"said":88,"maker_in_thread":159,"shape":172,"grid":176,"attempts":392,"same_week":393,"maker_shows":46,"maker_hidden":423,"reader_version":424,"card":425},"6516279","Future Block","A site that lets you bet against Bitcoin Hash Rate Volatility","title","Show HN: I made a site that lets you bet against Bitcoin Hash Rate Volatility","http:\u002F\u002Fwww.futureblock.com\u002F","futureblock.com","locksley",1381252056,2013,128,83,165,1739,10,"notable","finance_crypto","bitcoin betting","web_app",[24,25,26,27,28],"bitcoin","hash rate","parimutuel betting","derivatives","prediction market","curious",-0.23,{"positive":32,"neutral":33,"mixed":34,"critical":35},5,32,0,16,53,{"pricing":38,"docs":40,"idea":41,"privacy":42,"design":44},{"positive":34,"critical":39},2,{"positive":34,"critical":34},{"positive":32,"critical":18},{"positive":34,"critical":43},1,{"positive":34,"critical":34},[46,34,43,46,34,34,34,34,46,46,43,43,34,46,46,46,43,46,46,46,46,43,46,43,43,46,46,32,46,34,46,46,32,43,46,46,46,43,43,39],3,null,{"problem":49,"audience":59,"pricing":64,"motivation":72,"time_to_build":47,"stack":79,"openness":86,"stage":87,"team_size":86},{"value":50,"source":51,"evidence":52},"Lets people bet on Bitcoin network hash rate, and eventually hedge risk","maker",[53,56],{"id":54,"by":11,"text":55},"6518939","Great question. That's exactly what we want to eventually do. For an efficient market to run, there needs to be a way to manage risk. However, if you mention \"derivatives\" to any…",{"id":57,"by":11,"text":58},"6516796","Parimutuel betting is where all the bets are placed in a pool and when the pool closes we then distribute the winnings amongst the bets. [1] In fact, this is how a lot of horse…",{"value":60,"source":61,"evidence":62},"Bitcoin users interested in betting or derivatives","inferred",[63],{"id":54,"by":11,"text":55},{"value":65,"source":51,"evidence":66},"House fees rise linearly from 0% to 20% over the betting round",[67,68],{"id":57,"by":11,"text":58},{"id":69,"by":70,"text":71},"6516881","goshakkk","It depends on when you place the bet. > House Fees: To encourage betting early, house fees begin at 0% of your bet and increases linearly to 20% when the betting round closes.…",{"value":73,"source":51,"evidence":74},"Build a futures\u002Foptions exchange and educate users about derivatives",[75,78],{"id":76,"by":11,"text":77},"6516701","Shorting will require more borrowing\u002Flending in the BTC ecosystem. But there are other ways to mitigate downside risks, such as hedging (put options in particular). This is…",{"id":54,"by":11,"text":55},[80],{"value":81,"source":51,"evidence":82},"blockchain.info hash rate API",[83],{"id":84,"by":11,"text":85},"6516563","Actually, we're using Network Hash Rate rather than difficulty. Difficulty changes every ~2 weeks. This is the API endpoint we're polling is https:\u002F\u002Fblockchain.info\u002Fq\u002Fhashrate…","unknown","launched",{"praise":89,"objections":102,"requests":139,"questions":144,"alternatives":158},[90],{"value":91,"source":92,"evidence":93},"Cool, well-done idea","commenter",[94,98],{"id":95,"by":96,"text":97},"6517147","taternuts","Kudo's my friend, this is really cool idea, and it's also really well done. I think this would still be fun even if it were just for internet brownie points, but actually being…",{"id":99,"by":100,"text":101},"6516480","tomw1808","Cool idea, suddenly want to buy bitcoins just to participate :) 1,648,531 GH\u002Fs is the current target. I can bet below or above that. It maybe sound odd, because I am not really…",[103,114,125,132],{"value":104,"source":92,"evidence":105},"Likely illegal gambling under US law",[106,110],{"id":107,"by":108,"text":109},"6517018","Romoku","The business is more than likely violating gambling regulations by soliciting US customers. IANAL, but Satoshi Dice did block US players due to legal concerns…",{"id":111,"by":112,"text":113},"6519444","downandout","The issue with this is that it appears the site is being hosted in Wilmington, DE. Since this is not a game of skill, it is almost certainly illegal to operate within that state…",{"value":115,"source":92,"evidence":116},"Insider manipulation by miners is possible",[117,121],{"id":118,"by":119,"text":120},"6520218","fmax30","Interesting , it may be illegal but it can also be cheated by a sort of insider trading. Say i own a number of ASIC miners , I turn them off , and then bet for a number higher…",{"id":122,"by":123,"text":124},"6517097","benmanns","Not necessarily. If the market is large enough and you control a significant portion of the hashing power (e.g. pool operators), you could bet below and then halt all hashing for…",{"value":126,"source":92,"evidence":127},"Fees seem high",[128],{"id":129,"by":130,"text":131},"6516865","phogster","\"After 9.10% House Fees Deducted\" Isn't that a little high?",{"value":133,"source":92,"evidence":134},"Betting time period unclear on front page",[135],{"id":136,"by":137,"text":138},"6517260","joosters","One suggestion: The site needs to be much clearer about the betting time period and the time period that is being bet on. I can't see anywhere on the front page that explains…",[140],{"value":141,"source":92,"evidence":142},"Explain the betting time period more clearly on the front page",[143],{"id":136,"by":137,"text":138},[145,152],{"value":146,"source":92,"evidence":147},"Is it legal in the US?",[148],{"id":149,"by":150,"text":151},"6516639","6thSigma","Is this legal in America? Edit: Why the downvotes? I'm curious if they got an opinion from a lawyer on the legality of their site.",{"value":153,"source":92,"evidence":154},"What is the payout and how does parimutuel work?",[155],{"id":156,"by":123,"text":157},"6516653","How does the parimutuel betting work? If I bet now, am I guaranteed the \"Betting X Pays Out\" amount if I am right, or does that change with more bets on either side?",[],{"comments":160,"answered":161,"key":162},11,9,[163,166,169],{"id":164,"text":165},"6516589","Because of the nature of this site, we are very sensitive to any security related questions. Sorry! Without revealing anything specific, we have a number of trigger conditions…",{"id":167,"text":168},"6518945","I think you're right about this. Any suggestions for UI\u002FUX elements?",{"id":170,"text":171},"6516822","You'd need ASIC Miners, but even then, you'd have a minuscule impact. More importantly, if you have that much Gigahashing power, it's not worth manipulating this. You're better…",{"commenters":173,"max_depth":174,"maker_replies":160,"first_comment_mins":18,"lifespan_hours":175},48,12,25,[177,179,182,186,189,191,193,196,199,201,203,206,208,211,213,215,217,220,223,225,227,229,232,233,237,240,242,246,247,251,254,257,260,261,263,264,266,269,272,277,278,279,281,284,287,290,294,295,297,300,302,304,306,309,312,314,317,319,320,323,324,326,328,330,333,335,338,340,343,347,350,354,358,361,362,365,366,369,373,376,380,384,388],[149,34,46,178,150,34],"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone",[180,34,46,178,181,34],"6517012","scotch_drinker",[183,34,34,184,185,34],"6517082","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","dedward",[187,34,34,184,188,34],"6517205","andyakb",[107,34,43,190,108,34],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fnone",[192,34,46,178,150,34],"6517124",[194,34,46,178,195,34],"6517477","MichaelGG",[197,34,34,184,198,34],"6518434","dllthomas",[200,34,34,184,195,34],"6518539",[202,34,34,184,198,34],"6518593",[204,34,34,184,205,34],"6518836","stuhood",[207,34,34,184,198,34],"6518959",[209,34,34,184,210,34],"6520182","icebraining",[212,34,34,184,198,34],"6521693",[214,34,34,184,210,34],"6522297",[216,34,34,184,198,34],"6522356",[218,34,34,184,219,34],"6522703","maaku",[221,34,46,178,222,34],"6519536","cstrat",[224,34,46,178,108,34],"6520828",[226,34,46,178,195,34],"6521787",[228,34,46,178,108,34],"6521938",[230,34,43,190,231,34],"6517129","ExpiredLink",[111,43,43,190,112,34],[234,39,46,235,236,34],"6518042","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fpricing","IanCal",[238,39,34,184,239,34],"6518096","gfosco",[241,39,34,184,236,34],"6518119",[243,46,46,244,245,34],"6516528","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fnone","CodeCube",[164,46,34,244,11,43],[248,46,34,249,250,34],"6517831","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fprivacy","fastball",[252,46,34,249,253,34],"6519277","oh_sigh",[136,255,46,256,137,34],4,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdocs",[258,255,46,256,259,34],"6517393","matchu",[167,255,34,244,11,43],[129,32,43,262,130,34],"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fpricing",[69,32,46,235,70,34],[265,32,46,235,185,34],"6517112",[267,32,46,235,268,34],"6517196","bradysullivan",[270,32,46,235,271,34],"6517906","Systemic33",[273,274,46,275,276,34],"6516738",6,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea","eloff",[170,274,34,275,11,43],[122,274,46,275,123,34],[280,274,46,275,195,34],"6517492",[282,274,46,275,283,34],"6516855","CrunchyJams",[118,285,43,286,119,34],7,"project\u002Fcritical\u002Fidea",[288,285,43,286,289,34],"6520259","shawabawa3",[291,292,46,275,293,34],"6516643",8,"bachback",[76,292,34,275,11,43],[296,292,43,286,293,34],"6517293",[298,292,46,275,299,34],"6516711","samograd",[301,292,43,286,293,34],"6518333",[303,292,46,275,299,34],"6518858",[305,292,46,275,293,34],"6519534",[307,292,34,308,299,34],"6521630","commenter\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[310,292,46,275,311,34],"6517127","gknoy",[313,161,46,275,205,34],"6518851",[315,161,34,316,11,43],"6518929","maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fperformance",[95,18,32,318,96,34],"project\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[99,160,32,318,100,34],[321,160,46,275,322,34],"6516494","cypherpunks01",[84,160,34,316,11,43],[325,160,34,184,322,34],"6516704",[327,160,34,275,11,43],"6516515",[329,160,32,318,100,34],"6516907",[331,174,43,262,332,34],"6516354","IceyEC",[334,174,34,235,11,43],"6516377",[336,337,46,275,198,34],"6518643",13,[54,337,34,339,11,43],"maker\u002Fneutral\u002Fidea",[341,337,32,342,198,34],"6519052","maker\u002Fpositive\u002Fidea",[344,345,43,286,346,34],"6516584",14,"knodi",[348,345,43,286,349,34],"6516596","ZirconCode",[351,345,43,352,353,34],"6516923","project\u002Fcritical\u002Fprivacy","jrochkind1",[355,356,32,318,357,34],"6516397",15,"sida",[359,356,34,360,11,43],"6516422","project\u002Fneutral\u002Fexecution",[156,35,46,235,123,34],[363,35,46,235,364,34],"6516742","hanley",[57,35,34,235,11,43],[367,35,43,286,368,34],"6518592","foobarqux",[370,371,43,286,372,34],"6519326",17,"drakaal",[374,371,34,184,375,34],"6519717","josephagoss",[377,378,43,286,379,34],"6519825",18,"grogenaut",[381,382,46,383,198,34],"6519048",19,"project\u002Fneutral\u002Fdesign",[385,386,46,244,387,34],"6519415",20,"jboggan",[389,390,43,286,391,34],"6519271",21,"tpainton",[],[394,399,404,408,413,418],{"id":395,"name":396,"points":397,"category":398},"6497366","govuptime.com",267,"other",{"id":400,"name":401,"points":402,"category":403},"6495287","Harp",233,"dev_tools",{"id":405,"name":406,"points":407,"category":403},"6490841","Arc",152,{"id":409,"name":410,"points":411,"category":412},"6498625","Bit of News",108,"productivity",{"id":414,"name":415,"points":416,"category":417},"6508787","Mummify",90,"infrastructure",{"id":419,"name":420,"points":421,"category":422},"6501421","Upbeat, HN for music",77,"creative",false,"v2",{"id":426,"name":5,"line":6,"ai":423,"cat":20,"year":13,"points":14,"comments":15,"rec":29,"s":30,"top":18,"kw":427,"maker":11,"domain":10,"tier":19,"attempts":34,"strip":428,"url":9,"mix":429,"praise":91,"objection":104,"sub":21},6516279,[24,25,26,27,28],"3013000033110333133331311335303351333112",[32,33,34,35],1793990898428]