Alarmism.watch
Other
fact checking
SHOW HN2020
How HN took it
2 positive, 0 neutral or asking, 2 mixed, 10 critical, out of 14 comments about the project. Thread score -0.50.
Execution: 1 for, 4 againstIdea: 1 for, 2 againstDocs: 0 for, 2 againstPricing: 0 for, 1 againstDesign: 0 for, 1 against
The thread, comment by comment
Each row is a top-level comment and its replies, in HN's order. Select a cell to open that comment on HN.
positive neutral or mixed critical about another commenter or something else the maker
What HN said
What people liked
Good idea and fun to use
From 2 comments
Not sitting well with the HN hive mind, but I love it. Thanks for a fun and well-executed idea. I predict this comment will be at -4 points by 10am PST 9/2/2020!
tomcam on HNThe idea behind this is brilliant, and I support the sentiment. Unfortunately, for this to work effectively, you really need to be accurate and precise. As others pointed out, a…
mekkkkkk on HN
Objections
Verdicts are vague, with timeframes and claims that are hard to evaluate
From 3 comments
This seems to have a problem of assuming the timeframe for the fulfillment of vague claims. For example, if the claim: "U.N. Predicts entire nations could be wiped-off if Global…
rhn_mk1 on HNSome of these are a little odd. You classify the "Coronavirus pandemic could cause 40 million deaths if left unchecked" as false, with the explanation that though we're still in…
autophagian on HN> If you're making a claim that we are in an economic bubble, you can't claim victory if there's a stock market crash after twenty years. What's the timeframe then? If you are…
rhn_mk1 on HN
Many Failed verdicts lack sources or cite think tanks
From 2 comments
Very interesting. However many "Failed" lack of sources. The links used as proof are usually Think Tank which are far from objectives about information.
CiTyBear on HNThe idea behind this is brilliant, and I support the sentiment. Unfortunately, for this to work effectively, you really need to be accurate and precise. As others pointed out, a…
mekkkkkk on HN
Some verdicts are inaccurate, such as the Siberian climate date and the 40 million deaths claim
From 2 comments
At least make things accurate: The claim 'Britain to have Siberian climate in 20 years' was made in 2004 (according to the table) and its status is 'failed'. Last time I checked…
mosselman on HNSome of these are a little odd. You classify the "Coronavirus pandemic could cause 40 million deaths if left unchecked" as false, with the explanation that though we're still in…
autophagian on HN
Binary failed status does not show percentage progress
From 1 comment
Think this should show the status as a percentage of the predicted value, not a boolean "failed". 99% would still be marked here as Failed?
roelb on HN
Requests
Add more examples of correct alarmist predictions
From 1 comment
The list ought to include more of the correct instances of alarmism, and there are plenty to choose from. As they were semi-predictable events (aside from the exact year and…
bluquark on HN
Clearer labels for links and sources
From 1 comment
This seems to have a problem of assuming the timeframe for the fulfillment of vague claims. For example, if the claim: "U.N. Predicts entire nations could be wiped-off if Global…
rhn_mk1 on HN
Questions
What timeframe is used for vague predictions
From 2 comments
> If you're making a claim that we are in an economic bubble, you can't claim victory if there's a stock market crash after twenty years. What's the timeframe then? If you are…
rhn_mk1 on HNThis seems to have a problem of assuming the timeframe for the fulfillment of vague claims. For example, if the claim: "U.N. Predicts entire nations could be wiped-off if Global…
rhn_mk1 on HN
Alternatives named
Longbets
From 1 comment
More specific claims have been made and held accountable at http://longbets.com.
tomcdonnell on HN
Politifact and Snopes
From 1 comment
Agreed. Your assessments are at least as commonsensical as Politifact, Snopes, etc.
tomcam on HN