Global Oil Network
Data
oil supply network simulation
SHOW HN2026
Global Oil Network
I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
globaloilnetwork.staffinganalytics.io#strait of hormuz#oil reserves simulation#oil supply chain#stress testing#oil price shock
How HN took it
5 positive, 18 neutral or asking, 0 mixed, 8 critical, out of 31 comments about the project. Thread score -0.09.
Idea: 1 for, 4 againstExecution: 0 for, 3 againstPerformance: 0 for, 1 againstDesign: 1 for, 0 against
The thread, comment by comment
Each row is a top-level comment and its replies, in HN's order. Select a cell to open that comment on HN.
positive neutral or mixed critical about another commenter or something else the maker
What HN said
What people liked
Interesting model and useful as a stress-testing tool
From 3 comments
This is really interesting. Investment firms could incorporate this kind of simulation into their products.
larsien on HNVery cool. I'll def check this out more later on.
runlaszlorun on HNIt's good
CzaxTanmay on HN
Customizable parameters like demand elasticity are a good feature
From 1 comment
Nice that you allowed readers to customize the parameters! I personally thought the demand demand elasticity was too low and I was able to adjust it.
kccqzy on HN
Objections
Model omits sanctioned and unreported trade such as Iran and China flows
From 3 comments
Are emergency stockpiles calculated correctly? China should not be the first to be exposed.
kingjimmy on HNdid you model rapid decrease of oil import by China?
NooneAtAll3 on HNNice. How does this stand up against backtesting with recent data? Also, i thought China's emergency stockpile is about 1.4b barrels or close 5 months of domestic consumption,…
tdu01 on HN
Exporter reserves deplete even at 100% capacity retained, seems wrong
From 3 comments
I don't know if I'm doing something wrong, but if I set Capacity Retained to 100% then no matter what I set the other values to a bunch of countries deplete their reserves. This…
Normal_gaussian on HNWhy do reserves deplete with 100% of the strait open?
bagels on HNSomething seems to be wrong with the simulation: some countries run on reserves, and out of them, even with 100 % delivery. OP blames "Market elasticity parameters" for that, but…
a3w on HN
Strait is already closed for months, so the model is outdated
From 1 comment
I really do appreciate the effort but it’s somewhat falsified given it’s been closed for months. Cool exercise, just, not much there there between a model we know is wrong and a…
refulgentis on HN
Omits Saudi and UAE bypass pipelines in early analysis
From 1 comment
Maybe I missed it looking over the paper, or maybe they are implicit, but are you taking into account Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) , I believe it does…
molticrystal on HN
Requests
Add India as a shock target
From 1 comment
OP, please add India as a shock target option if possible. It imports close to 80+% of its crude oil and gas requirements and is highly vulnerable to oil flow shocks.
wtmt on HN
Add a playback speed control, especially on mobile
From 1 comment
Good stuff. Maybe you can make a playback speed option for the simulation/play button? I fail to follow up.
entropie on HN
Backtest against recent data
From 1 comment
Nice. How does this stand up against backtesting with recent data? Also, i thought China's emergency stockpile is about 1.4b barrels or close 5 months of domestic consumption,…
tdu01 on HN
Questions
How much of the paper was written with AI
From 1 comment
How much of the paper was written with AI?
mhh__ on HN
What modelling approach is used
From 1 comment
What modelling approach are you using, and where can I learn more about it? Really cool, btw.
sebzuddas on HN
Why do reserves deplete with 100% of the strait open
From 1 comment
Why do reserves deplete with 100% of the strait open?
bagels on HN